DOI: 10.3390/su12031216
论文题名: Economic effects of climate change-induced loss of agricultural production by 2050: A case study of Pakistan
作者: Khan M.A. ; Tahir A. ; Khurshid N. ; ul Husnain M.I. ; Ahmed M. ; Boughanmi H.
刊名: Sustainability (Switzerland)
ISSN: 20711050
出版年: 2020
卷: 12, 期: 3 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Agriculture production
; Climate change
; Computable general equilibrium
; Economic models
; Global climate models
; Pakistan
Scopus关键词: Triticum aestivum
英文摘要: This research combined global climate, crop and economic models to examine the economic impact of climate change-induced loss of agricultural productivity in Pakistan. Previous studies conducted systematic model inter-comparisons, but results varied widely due to differences in model approaches, research scenarios and input data. This paper extends that analysis in the case of Pakistan by taking yield decline output of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) for CERES-Wheat, CERES-Rice and Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) crop models as an input in the global economic model to evaluate the economic effects of climate change-induced loss of crop production by 2050. Results showed that climate change-induced loss of wheat and rice crop production by 2050 is 19.5 billion dollars on Pakistan's Real Gross Domestic Product coupled with an increase in commodity prices followed by a notable decrease in domestic private consumption. However, the decline in the crops' production not only affects the economic agents involved in the agriculture sector of the country, but it also has a multiplier effect on industrial and business sectors. A huge rise in commodity prices will create a great challenge for the livelihood of the whole country, especially for urban households. It is recommended that the government should have a sound agricultural policy that can play a role in influencing its ability to adapt successfully to climate change as adaption is necessary for high production and net returns of the farm output. © 2020 by the authors. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/159444
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Economics, COMSATS University, Islamabad, 45550, Pakistan; Department of Agronomy, PMAS Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, 46300, Pakistan; Department of Agricultural Research for Northern Sweden, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, UMEÅ, 90183, Sweden; Department of Natural Resource Economics, College of Agricultural and Marine Sciences, Sultan Qaboos University, Muscat, 123, Oman
Recommended Citation:
Khan M.A.,Tahir A.,Khurshid N.,et al. Economic effects of climate change-induced loss of agricultural production by 2050: A case study of Pakistan[J]. Sustainability (Switzerland),2020-01-01,12(3)