DOI: 10.1029/2019WR026022
论文题名: Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Reservoir Storage Reliability, Resilience, and Vulnerability Using a Multivariate Frequency Bias Correction Approach
作者: Nguyen H. ; Mehrotra R. ; Sharma A.
刊名: Water Resources Research
ISSN: 431397
出版年: 2020
卷: 56, 期: 2 语种: 英语
英文关键词: frequency-based bias correction
; hydrological climate change impacts
; multivariate bias correction
; quantile mapping
; reservoir storage
Scopus关键词: Catchments
; Climate models
; Digital storage
; Reliability
; Reservoirs (water)
; Runoff
; Water supply
; Bias correction
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Hydrological climate change
; Hydrological impact assessments
; Hydrological modeling
; Regional climate models
; Reservoir storage
; Runoff characteristics
; Climate change
英文摘要: Raw simulations of global or regional climate models are rarely used in catchment scale hydrological impact assessment or subsequent reservoir storage change assessment studies. Keeping this in mind, this study uses a frequency bias correction alternative for multiple variables to evaluate the impact of climate change on reservoir storage reliability, resilience, and vulnerability across Australia. The bias-corrected time series of daily rainfall and temperature are used as inputs to a hydrological model to derive flows and assess change to reservoir storage attributes. A total of six fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project climate models dynamically downscaled using the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model are used. Streamflow data of 222 high-quality catchments in near-natural conditions across Australia are used and change ascertained. The results for the historical climate show that the multivariate frequency bias correction approach outperforms the traditional quantile matching alternative in representing the runoff characteristics related to reservoir storage. For the future climate, the results suggest decrease in the annual mean runoff for most catchments. The proposed approach leads to a smaller decrease in the standard deviation of annual runoff and a reduction in the water supply capability, as indicated by a reduction in reliability and resilience and an increase in vulnerability, to meet the demand in comparison to both raw and quantile matching-based climate simulations across for most catchments. Overall, a reduction in water supply capability to meet a given demand in the future for most regional climate models and catchments is projected. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/159495
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Water Research Centre, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, Thuyloi University, Hanoi, Viet Nam
Recommended Citation:
Nguyen H.,Mehrotra R.,Sharma A.. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Reservoir Storage Reliability, Resilience, and Vulnerability Using a Multivariate Frequency Bias Correction Approach[J]. Water Resources Research,2020-01-01,56(2)