DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111090
论文题名: Macroeconomic modelling under energy constraints: Global low carbon transition scenarios
作者: Nieto J. ; Carpintero Ó. ; Miguel L.J. ; de Blas I.
刊名: Energy Policy
ISSN: 3014215
出版年: 2020
卷: 137 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate policy
; Energy policy
; Green growth
; Integrated assessment models
; Post-growth
Scopus关键词: Carbon
; Economics
; Energy policy
; Industrial emissions
; Sustainable development
; Business-as-usual
; Climate policy
; Green growths
; Industrial policies
; Integrated assessment models
; Low-carbon transitions
; Sustainability transition
; System dynamics model
; Climate models
; climate change
; economic growth
; economic policy
; energy policy
; environmental policy
; Gross Domestic Product
; macroeconomics
; modeling
; sustainability
英文摘要: Integrated Assessment Models provide a framework to study sustainability transitions and their economic impacts. Models seldom consider energy constraints, taking supply availability for granted and thus suggesting a mere change in the energy mix from non-renewables to renewables. In order to address these limitations, a macro-economic module within a broader system dynamics model (MEDEAS) has been developed. The model has been run for the whole world from 1995 to 2050 under three different scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), considering no further transition policies and keeping current trends; Green Growth (GG), undertaking the low-carbon transition according to the Paris Agreement set of policies and with high GDP growth standards; and Post-Growth (PG), testing the sustainability transition under a GDP non-growth/degrowth approach. The results reveal the conflict between economic growth, climate policy and the sustainability of resources. Whereas a BAU approach would not even be an option to achieve climate goals, a GG view would not only face the downsizing of economic output, but neither would it be able to achieve the 2 °C objective. The success of the PG approach in meeting emissions objectives suggests a redirection from economic growth policies to an industrial policy that incorporates efficiency and redistribution. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/159602
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Applied Economics, University of Valladolid, Av. Valle Esgueva 6, Spain; Research Group on Energy, Economy and System Dynamics, University of Valladolid, Paseo del Cauce, s/n, Spain
Recommended Citation:
Nieto J.,Carpintero Ó.,Miguel L.J.,et al. Macroeconomic modelling under energy constraints: Global low carbon transition scenarios[J]. Energy Policy,2020-01-01,137