DOI: 10.1007/s00704-019-03049-7
论文题名: Future projection of winter precipitation over northwest India and associated regions using CORDEX-SA experiments
作者: Midhuna T.M. ; Dimri A.P.
刊名: Theoretical and Applied Climatology
ISSN: 0177798X
出版年: 2020
卷: 139, 期: 2020-03-04 语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: climate modeling
; climate prediction
; concentration (composition)
; downscaling
; global climate
; numerical model
; performance assessment
; precipitation (climatology)
; regional climate
; weather forecasting
; India
; Karakoram
英文摘要: Precipitation during winter months of December, January, and February over northwest India is important for the production of winter crops as well as for glacial accumulation which goes on to feed major rivers in India with fresh water supply. Winter precipitation over this region is due to the movement of synoptic systems approaching from the Mediterranean known as Western Disturbances (WDs). So far, spatial pattern of winter precipitation over this region has not been studied using different RCMs. The present study evaluates the regional climate model employed in Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment in South Asia (CORDEX-South Asia) framework to characterize winter precipitation over northwest India and Karakoram region. There are 16 CORDEX-South Asia experiments with 3 regional climate models (RCM) driven with 16 global climate models (GCM). Precipitation climatology is calculated for different RCM along with their ensemble. All the experiments show a wet bias over the region. The selection of best performing RCM is identified using various statistical analyses. The CORDEX experiment run by EC_EARTH RCM with RCA4 GCM developed by Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) is identified as the best performing model when compared with observation. The change in future seasonal mean precipitation is assessed over northwest India and Karakoram region under two representation concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. A positive change in precipitation is observed over Karakoram region under the two RCP scenarios for near future and far future periods. The magnitude of precipitation change is found to be less over the study area under RCP 8.5 scenario for near future period compared to other scenario and time period. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/159723
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India
Recommended Citation:
Midhuna T.M.,Dimri A.P.. Future projection of winter precipitation over northwest India and associated regions using CORDEX-SA experiments[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2020-01-01,139(2020-03-04)