DOI: 10.3390/su12041489
论文题名: A combination forecasting strategy for precipitation, temperature and wind speed in the southeastern margin of the tengger desert
作者: Fu T. ; Li X.
刊名: Sustainability (Switzerland)
ISSN: 20711050
出版年: 2020
卷: 12, 期: 4 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Biological soil crust
; Combination model
; Particle swarm optimization algorithm
; Precipitation prediction
; The Tengger Desert
; Variational mode decomposition
英文摘要: Global warming is inevitably the cause of local climate change, which will have a profound impact on regional ecology, especially in the desertified steppe and steppefied desert transition zones with fragile ecological environments. In order to investigate the change trends of precipitation, temperature and wind speed for effectively realizing the restoration and protection of desert ecosystems, a combination forecasting strategy including the data pre-processing technique, sub-models selection and parameter optimization was proposed and three numerical simulation experiments based on the combination model with the weights optimized by the particle swarm optimization algorithm were designed to forecast the precipitation, temperature and wind speed in the southeastern margin of the Tengger Desert in China. Numerical results showed that the proposed combination prediction method has higher forecasting accuracy and better robustness than single neural network models and hybrid models. The proposed method is beneficial to analyze climate change in arid regions. © 2020 by the authors. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/159833
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Shapotou Desert Research and Experiment Station, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, 730000, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
Recommended Citation:
Fu T.,Li X.. A combination forecasting strategy for precipitation, temperature and wind speed in the southeastern margin of the tengger desert[J]. Sustainability (Switzerland),2020-01-01,12(4)