DOI: 10.1029/2019GB006383
论文题名: Initial Land Use/Cover Distribution Substantially Affects Global Carbon and Local Temperature Projections in the Integrated Earth System Model
作者: Di Vittorio A.V. ; Shi X. ; Bond-Lamberty B. ; Calvin K. ; Jones A.
刊名: Global Biogeochemical Cycles
ISSN: 0886-6236
EISSN: 1944-9224
出版年: 2020
卷: 34, 期: 5 语种: 英语
英文关键词: carbon
; carbon cycle
; global climate
; land cover
; land use
; simulation
; temperature effect
; uncertainty analysis
学科: carbon
; climate
; ESM
; land cover
; land use
; uncertainty
中文摘要: Initial land cover distribution varies among Earth system models, an uncertainty in initial conditions that can substantially affect carbon and climate projections. We use the integrated Earth System Model to show that a 3.9 M km2 difference in 2005 global forest area (9–14% of total forest area) generates uncertainties in initial atmospheric CO2 concentration, terrestrial carbon, and local temperature that propagate through a future simulation following the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5. By 2095, the initial 6 ppmv uncertainty range increases to 9 ppmv and the initial 26 PgC uncertainty range in terrestrial carbon increases to 33 PgC. The initial uncertainty range in annual average local temperature of −0.74 to 0.96 °C persists throughout the future simulation, with a seasonal maximum in Dec-Jan-Feb. These results highlight the importance of accurately characterizing historical land use and land cover to reduce overall initial condition uncertainty. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/160045
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States; Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States; Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College ParkMD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Di Vittorio A.V.,Shi X.,Bond-Lamberty B.,et al. Initial Land Use/Cover Distribution Substantially Affects Global Carbon and Local Temperature Projections in the Integrated Earth System Model[J]. Global Biogeochemical Cycles,2020-01-01,34(5)