DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1906670117
论文题名: Network effects govern the evolution of maritime trade
作者: Kosowska-Stamirowska Z.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2020
卷: 117, 期: 23 起始页码: 12719
结束页码: 12728
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Evolving networks
; Machine learning
; Maritime trade
; Network science
; Transport networks
Scopus关键词: Arctic shipping
; Article
; carbon footprint
; climate change
; controlled study
; demography
; earthquake
; ecosystem
; evolution
; forecasting
; gross national product
; industry
; machine learning
; maritime trade
; measurement accuracy
; prediction
; priority journal
; shipping
; traffic and transport
英文摘要: Maritime transport accounts for over 80% of the world trade volume and is the backbone of the global economy. Global supply chains create a complex network of trade flows. The structure of this network impacts not only the socioeconomic development of the concerned regions but also their ecosystems. The movements of ships are a considerable source of CO2 emissions and contribute to climate change. In the wake of the announced development of Arctic shipping, the need to understand the behavior of the maritime trade network and to predict future trade flows becomes pressing. We use a unique database of daily movements of the world fleet over the period 1977–2008 and apply machine learning techniques on network data to develop models for predicting the opening of new shipping lines and for forecasting trade volume on links. We find that the evolution of this system is governed by a simple rule from network science, relying on the number of common neighbors between pairs of ports. This finding is consistent over all three decades of temporal data. We further confirm it with a natural experiment, involving traffic redirection from the port of Kobe after the 1995 earthquake. Our forecasting method enables researchers and industry to easily model effects of potential future scenarios at the level of ports, regions, and the world. Our results also indicate that maritime trade flows follow a form of random walk on the underlying network structure of sea connections, highlighting its pivotal role in the development of maritime trade. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/162066
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Kosowska-Stamirowska, Z., Géographie-Cités, CNRS, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Paris, 75006, France
Recommended Citation:
Kosowska-Stamirowska Z.. Network effects govern the evolution of maritime trade[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2020-01-01,117(23)