DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1814990116
论文题名: Economics of the disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet
作者: Nordhaus W.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2019
卷: 116, 期: 25 起始页码: 12261
结束页码: 12269
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; DICE model
; Economics
; Greenland ice sheet
; Optimization
Scopus关键词: Article
; climate change
; cost benefit analysis
; economic development
; economic status
; environmental economics
; environmental impact
; environmental monitoring
; environmental policy
; environmental temperature
; Greenland
; ice age
; ice sheet
; melting temperature
; priority journal
英文摘要: Concerns about the impact on large-scale earth systems have taken center stage in the scientific and economic analysis of climate change. The present study analyzes the economic impact of a potential disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS). The study introduces an approach that combines long-run economic growth models, climate models, and reduced-form GIS models. The study demonstrates that social cost–benefit analysis and damage-limiting strategies can be usefully extended to illuminate issues with major long-term consequences, as well as concerns such as potential tipping points, irreversibility, and hysteresis. A key finding is that, under a wide range of assumptions, the risk of GIS disintegration makes a small contribution to the optimal stringency of current policy or to the overall social cost of climate change. It finds that the cost of GIS disintegration adds less than 5% to the social cost of carbon (SCC) under alternative discount rates and estimates of the GIS dynamics. © 2019 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/162083
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Nordhaus, W., Department of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520, United States
Recommended Citation:
Nordhaus W.. Economics of the disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2019-01-01,116(25)