DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1813233115
论文题名: Altimeter-era emergence of the patterns of forced sea-level rise in climate models and implications for the future
作者: Fasullo J.T. ; Nerem R.S.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2018
卷: 115, 期: 51 起始页码: 12944
结束页码: 12949
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atellite altimetry
; Climate variability
; Limate change
; Sea level
Scopus关键词: article
; climate change
; human
; hurricane
; sea level rise
; simulation
; warming
英文摘要: The satellite altimeter record has provided an unprecedented database for understanding sea-level rise and has recently reached a major milestone at 25 years in length. A challenge now exists in understanding its broader significance and its consequences for sea-level rise in the coming decades and beyond. A key question is whether the pattern of altimeter-era change is representative of longer-term trends driven by anthropogenic forcing. In this work, two multimember climate ensembles, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Earth System Model Version 2M (ESM2M), are used to estimate patterns of forced change [also known as the forced response (FR)] and their magnitudes relative to internal variability. It is found that the spatial patterns of 1993–2018 trends in the ensembles correlate significantly with the contemporaneous FRs (0.55 ± 0.10 in the CESM and 0.61 ± 0.09 in the ESM2M) and the 1950–2100 FRs (0.43 ± 0.10 in the CESM and 0.51 ± 0.11 in the ESM2M). Unforced runs for each model show such correlations to be extremely unlikely to have arisen by chance, indicating an emergence of both the altimeter-era and long-term FRs and suggesting a similar emergence in nature. Projected patterns of the FR over the coming decades resemble those simulated during the altimeter era, suggesting a continuation of the forced pattern of change in nature in the coming decades. Notably, elevated rates of rise are projected to continue in regions that are susceptible to tropical cyclones, exacerbating associated impacts in a warming climate. © 2018 National Academy of Sciences. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/162093
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Fasullo, J.T., Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80301, United States; Nerem, R.S., Smead Aerospace Engineering Sciences, Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, United States
Recommended Citation:
Fasullo J.T.,Nerem R.S.. Altimeter-era emergence of the patterns of forced sea-level rise in climate models and implications for the future[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2018-01-01,115(51)