globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1807912115
论文题名:
Striking stationarity of large-scale climate model bias patterns under strong climate change
作者: Krinner G.; Flanner M.G.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2018
卷: 115, 期:38
起始页码: 9462
结束页码: 9466
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; Climate modeling ; Model biases
Scopus关键词: article ; climate change
英文摘要: Because all climate models exhibit biases, their use for assessing future climate change requires implicitly assuming or explicitly postulating that the biases are stationary or vary predictably. This hypothesis, however, has not been, and cannot be, tested directly. This work shows that under very large climate change the bias patterns of key climate variables exhibit a striking degree of stationarity. Using only correlation with a model’s preindustrial bias pattern, a model’s 4xCO 2 bias pattern is objectively and correctly identified among a large model ensemble in almost all cases. This outcome would be exceedingly improbable if bias patterns were independent of climate state. A similar result is also found for bias patterns in two historical periods. This provides compelling and heretofore missing justification for using such models to quantify climate perturbation patterns and for selecting well-performing models for regional downscaling. Furthermore, it opens the way to extending bias corrections to perturbed states, substantially broadening the range of justified applications of climate models. © 2018 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/162096
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Krinner, G., Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement, Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Grenoble, 38000, France, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada, School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada; Flanner, M.G., Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, United States

Recommended Citation:
Krinner G.,Flanner M.G.. Striking stationarity of large-scale climate model bias patterns under strong climate change[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2018-01-01,115(38)
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