Bronze Age
; climate change
; coastal waters
; community
; Conference Paper
; gravity
; greenhouse effect
; North America
; Norway
; priority journal
; risk
; sea
; sea level
; sea level rise
; seashore
; temperature
; warming
英文摘要:
Two degrees of global warming above the preindustrial level is widely suggested as an appropriate threshold beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high. This "2 °C" threshold is likely to be reached between 2040 and 2050 for both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and 4.5. Resulting sea level rises will not be globally uniform, due to ocean dynamical processes and changes in gravity associated with water mass redistribution. Here we provide probabilistic sea level rise projections for the global coastline with warming above the 2 °C goal. By 2040, with a 2 °C warming under the RCP8.5 scenario, more than 90%of coastal areas will experience sea level rise exceeding the global estimate of 0.2 m, with up to 0.4 m expected along the Atlantic coast of North America and Norway. With a 5 °C rise by 2100, sea level will rise rapidly, reaching 0.9 m (median), and 80% of the coastline will exceed the global sea level rise at the 95th percentile upper limit of 1.8 m. Under RCP8.5, by 2100, New York may expect rises of 1.09 m, Guangzhou may expect rises of 0.91 m, and Lagos may expect rises of 0.90 m, with the 95th percentile upper limit of 2.24 m, 1.93 m, and 1.92 m, respectively. The coastal communities of rapidly expanding cities in the developing world, and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems, will have a very limited time after midcentury to adapt to sea level rises unprecedented since the dawn of the Bronze Age.
Jevrejeva, S., National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, L3 5DA, United Kingdom; Jackson, L.P., National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, L3 5DA, United Kingdom, Programme for Economic Modelling, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 1NF, United Kingdom; Riva, R.E.M., Department Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2628CN, Netherlands, Climate Institute, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2628CN, Netherlands; Grinsted, A., Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, DK-2100, Denmark; Moore, J.C., Joint Center for Global Change Studies, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China, Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, Rovaniemi, FI-96101, Finland
Recommended Citation:
Jevrejeva S.,Jackson L.P.,Riva R.E.M.,et al. Coastal sea level rise with warming above 2 °C[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2016-01-01,113(47)