globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1219716110
论文题名:
Reducing spread in climate model projections of a September ice-free arctic
作者: Liu J.; Song M.; Horton R.M.; Hu Y.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2013
卷: 110, 期:31
起始页码: 12571
结束页码: 12576
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: arctic climate ; article ; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ; model ; priority journal ; sea ice ; simulation ; Arctic Regions ; Global Warming ; Models, Theoretical ; Seasons
英文摘要: This paper addresses the specter of a September ice-free Arctic in the 21st century using newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that large spread in the projected timing of the September ice-free Arctic in 30 CMIP5 models is associated at least as much with different atmospheric model components as with initial conditions. Here we reduce the spread in the timing of an ice-free state using two different approaches for the 30 CMIP5 models: (i) model selection based on the ability to reproduce the observed sea ice climatology and variability since 1979 and (ii) constrained estimation based on the strong and persistent relationship between present and future sea ice conditions. Results from the two approaches show good agreement. Under a high-emission scenario both approaches project that September ice extent will drop to ~1.7 million km 2 in the mid 2040s and reach the ice-free state (defined as 1 million km2) in 2054-2058. Under a medium-mitigation scenario, both approaches project a decrease to ~1.7 million km2 in the early 2060s, followed by a leveling off in the ice extent. © PNAS 2013.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/162147
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Liu, J., Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY 12222, United States; Song, M., State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; Horton, R.M., Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, United States; Hu, Y., Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China

Recommended Citation:
Liu J.,Song M.,Horton R.M.,et al. Reducing spread in climate model projections of a September ice-free arctic[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2013-01-01,110(31)
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