DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1214212110
论文题名: New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury
作者: Smith L.C. ; Stephenson S.R.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2013
卷: 110, 期: 13 起始页码: E1191
结束页码: E1195
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Arctic maritime development
; Climate change
; Global change
; Human-environment
; Marine transportation modeling
Scopus关键词: Arctic
; arctic climate
; article
; climate change
; controlled study
; global change
; Netherlands
; North America
; priority journal
; quantitative study
; radiative forcing
; Russian Federation
; sea ice
; seasonal variation
; ship
; shipping
; simulation
; time series analysis
; winter
英文摘要: Recent historic observed lows in Arctic sea ice extent, together with climate model projections of additional ice reductions in the future, have fueled speculations of potential new trans-Arctic shipping routes linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. However, numerical studies of how projected geophysical changes in sea ice will realistically impact ship navigation are lacking. To address this deficiency, we analyze seven climate model projections of sea ice properties, assuming two different climate change scenarios [representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5] and two vessel classes, to assess future changes in peak season (September) Arctic shipping potential. By midcentury, changing sea ice conditions enable expanded September navigability for common open-water ships crossing the Arctic along the Northern Sea Route over the Russian Federation, robust new routes for moderately ice-strengthened (Polar Class 6) ships over the North Pole, and new routes through the Northwest Passage for both vessel classes. Although numerous other nonclimatic factors also limit Arctic shipping potential, these findings have important economic, strategic, environmental, and governance implications for the region. © PNAS 2013. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/162149
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Smith, L.C., Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095, United States; Stephenson, S.R., Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095, United States
Recommended Citation:
Smith L.C.,Stephenson S.R.. New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2013-01-01,110(13)