globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2004904117
论文题名:
Acceleration of plague outbreaks in the second pandemic
作者: Earn D.J.D.; Ma J.; Poinar H.; Dushoff J.; Bolker B.M.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2020
卷: 117, 期:44
起始页码: 27703
结束页码: 27711
语种: 英语
英文关键词: COVID-19 ; Epidemic growth rate ; London ; Plague ; Reproduction number
Scopus关键词: animal ; England ; history ; human ; pandemic ; plague ; population density ; rat ; Animals ; History, 15th Century ; History, 16th Century ; History, 17th Century ; History, Medieval ; Humans ; London ; Pandemics ; Plague ; Population Density ; Rats
英文摘要: Historical records reveal the temporal patterns of a sequence of plague epidemics in London, United Kingdom, from the 14th to 17th centuries. Analysis of these records shows that later epidemics spread significantly faster (“accelerated”). Between the Black Death of 1348 and the later epidemics that culminated with the Great Plague of 1665, we estimate that the epidemic growth rate increased fourfold. Currently available data do not provide enough information to infer the mode of plague transmission in any given epidemic; nevertheless, order-of-magnitude estimates of epidemic parameters suggest that the observed slow growth rates in the 14th century are inconsistent with direct (pneumonic) transmission. We discuss the potential roles of demographic and ecological factors, such as climate change or human or rat population density, in driving the observed acceleration. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/162251
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Earn, D.J.D., Department of Mathematics & Statistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada, Department of Biology, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada, Michael G. deGroote Institute for Infectious Disease Research, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada; Ma, J., Department of Mathematics & Statistics, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC V8W 3R4, Canada; Poinar, H., Department of Biology, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada, Michael G. deGroote Institute for Infectious Disease Research, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada, McMaster Ancient DNA Centre, Department of Anthropology, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada, Department of Biochemistry, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada; Dushoff, J., Department of Mathematics & Statistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada, Department of Biology, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada, Michael G. deGroote Institute for Infectious Disease Research, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada; Bolker, B.M., Department of Mathematics & Statistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada, Department of Biology, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada, Michael G. deGroote Institute for Infectious Disease Research, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada

Recommended Citation:
Earn D.J.D.,Ma J.,Poinar H.,et al. Acceleration of plague outbreaks in the second pandemic[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2020-01-01,117(44)
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