Antarctica
; article
; climate change
; introduced species
; nonhuman
; plant seed
; population
; priority journal
; propagule
; risk assessment
; Antarctic Regions
; Humans
; Introduced Species
; Plant Vascular Bundle
; Risk Assessment
; Seeds
; Species Specificity
; Temperature
; Tracheophyta
英文摘要:
Invasive alien species are among the primary causes of biodiversity change globally, with the risks thereof broadly understood for most regions of the world. They are similarly thought to be among the most significant conservation threats to Antarctica, especially as climate change proceeds in the region. However, no comprehensive, continent-wide evaluation of the risks to Antarctica posed by such species has been undertaken. Here we do so by sampling, identifying, and mapping the vascular plant propagules carried by all categories of visitors to Antarctica during the International Polar Year's first season (2007-2008) and assessing propagule establishment likelihood based on their identity and origins and on spatial variation in Antarctica's climate. For an evaluation of the situation in 2100, we use modeled climates based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Scenario A1B [Nakicénović N, Swart R, eds (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK)]. Visitors carrying seeds average 9.5 seeds per person, although as vectors, scientists carry greater propagule loads than tourists. Annual tourist numbers (∼33,054) are higher than those of scientists (∼7,085), thus tempering these differences in propagule load. Alien species establishment is currently most likely for the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Recent founder populations of several alien species in this area corroborate these findings. With climate change, risks will grow in the Antarctic Peninsula, Ross Sea, and East Antarctic coastal regions. Our evidence-based assessment demonstrates which parts of Antarctica are at growing risk from alien species that may become invasive and provides the means to mitigate this threat now and into the future as the continent's climate changes.
Chown, S.L., Centre for Invasion Biology, Department of Botany and Zoology, Stellenbosch University, Matieland 7602, South Africa; Huiskes, A.H.L., Netherlands Institute of Ecology, 4400 AC, Yerseke, Netherlands; Gremmen, N.J.M., Netherlands Institute of Ecology, 4400 AC, Yerseke, Netherlands; Lee, J.E., Centre for Invasion Biology, Department of Botany and Zoology, Stellenbosch University, Matieland 7602, South Africa; Terauds, A., Centre for Invasion Biology, Department of Botany and Zoology, Stellenbosch University, Matieland 7602, South Africa, Australian Antarctic Division, Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities, Kingston, TAS 7050, Australia; Crosbie, K., International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators, Providence, RI 02906, United States; Frenot, Y., French Polar Institute Paul Emile Victor, 29280 Plouzané, France; Hughes, K.A., British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Cambridge CB3 0ET, United Kingdom; Imura, S., National Institute of Polar Research, Tokyo 190-8518, Japan; Kiefer, K., Australian Antarctic Division, Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities, Kingston, TAS 7050, Australia; Lebouvier, M., Station Biologique, Unité Mixte de Recherche Ecobio Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université de Rennes 1, 35380 Paimpont, France; Raymond, B., Australian Antarctic Division, Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities, Kingston, TAS 7050, Australia; Tsujimoto, M., Graduate University for Advanced Studies, Tachikawa, Tokyo 190-8518, Japan, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Tokyo 102-8472, Japan; Ware, C., Australian Antarctic Division, Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities, Kingston, TAS 7050, Australia; Van De Vijver, B., National Botanic Garden of Belgium, Domein Van Bouchout, B-1860 Meise, Belgium; Bergstrom, D.M., Australian Antarctic Division, Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities, Kingston, TAS 7050, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Chown S.L.,Huiskes A.H.L.,Gremmen N.J.M.,et al. Continent-wide risk assessment for the establishment of nonindigenous species in Antarctica[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2012-01-01,109(13)