article
; atmosphere
; climate change
; environmental monitoring
; environmental temperature
; greenhouse gas
; priority journal
; temperature acclimatization
; Air Pollution
; Atmosphere
; Climate
; Dangerous Behavior
; Forecasting
; Greenhouse Effect
; Humans
; International Cooperation
; United Nations
英文摘要:
Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [United Nations (1992) http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/ convkp/conveng.pdf. Accessed February 9, 2009] commits signatory nations to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that ''would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system.'' In an effort to provide some insight into impacts of climate change that might be considered DAI, authors of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identified 5 ''reasons for concern'' (RFCs). Relationships between various impacts reflected in each RFC and increases in global mean temperature (GMT) were portrayed in what has come to be called the ''burning embers diagram.'' In presenting the ''embers'' in the TAR, IPCC authors did not assess whether any single RFC was more important than any other; nor did they conclude what level of impacts or what atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases would constitute DAI, a value judgment that would be policy prescriptive. Here, we describe revisions of the sensitivities of the RFCs to increases in GMT and a more thorough understanding of the concept of vulnerability that has evolved over the past 8 years. This is based on our expert judgment about new findings in the growing literature since the publication of the TAR in 2001, including literature that was assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), as well as additional research published since AR4. Compared with results reported in the TAR, smaller increases in GMT are now estimated to lead to significant or substantial consequences in the framework of the 5 ''reasons for concern.''.
Smith, J.B., Stratus Consulting, Inc., Boulder, CO 80306-4059, United States; Schneider, S.H., Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, United States, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, United States; Oppenheimer, M., Department of Geosciences, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States; Yohe, G.W., Department of Economics, Wesleyan University, Middletown, CT 06459, United States; Hare, W., Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany; Mastrandrea, M.D., Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, United States; Patwardhan, A., Shailesh J. Mehta School of Management, Indian Institute of Technology-Bombay Powai, Mumbai 400076, India; Burton, I., University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M6J 2C1, Canada; Corfee-Morlot, J., Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, 75776 Paris Cedex 16, France; Magadza, C.H.D., Department of Biological Sciences, University Lake Kariba Research Station, Harare, Zimbabwe; Füssel, H.-M., Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany; Pittock, A.B., CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale 3195, Australia; Rahman, A., Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies, Dhaka, 1212, Bangladesh; Suarez, A., Institute of Ecology and Systematic, Cuba Environmental Agency, 10800 Havana, Cuba; Van Ypersele, J.-P., Institut d'Astronomie et de Géophysique Georges Lemaître, University Catholique de Louvain, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Recommended Citation:
Smith J.B.,Schneider S.H.,Oppenheimer M.,et al. Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ''reasons for concern''[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2009-01-01,106(11)