DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0803838105
论文题名: On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: Formidable challenges ahead
作者: Ramanathan V. ; Feng Y.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2008
卷: 105, 期: 38 起始页码: 14245
结束页码: 14250
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Committed
; Global warming
Scopus关键词: carbon dioxide
; aerosol
; climate change
; greenhouse effect
; industry
; priority journal
; review
; solar radiation
; urban area
; Aerosols
; Carbon Dioxide
; Conservation of Natural Resources
; Environmental Pollution
; Forecasting
; Fossil Fuels
; Greenhouse Effect
; Human Activities
; Temperature
英文摘要: The observed increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) since the preindustrial era has most likely committed the world to a warming of 2.4°C (1.4°C to 4.3°C) above the preindustrial surface temperatures. The committed warming is inferred from the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates of the greenhouse forcing and climate sensitivity. The estimated warming of 2.4°C is the equilibrium warming above preindustrial temperatures that the world will observe even if GHG concentrations are held fixed at their 2005 concentration levels but without any other anthropogenic forcing such as the cooling effect of aerosols. The range of 1.4°C to 4.3°C in the committed warming overlaps and surpasses the currently perceived threshold range of 1°C to 3°C for dangerous anthropogenic interference with many of the climate-tipping elements such as the summer arctic sea ice, Himalayan-Tibetan glaciers, and the Greenland Ice Sheet. IPCC models suggest that ≈25% (0.6°C) of the committed warming has been realized as of now. About 90% or more of the rest of the committed warming of 1.6°C will unfold during the 21st century, determined by the rate of the unmasking of the aerosol cooling effect by air pollution abatement laws and by the rate of release of the GHGs-forcing stored in the oceans. The accompanying sea-level rise can continue for more than several centuries. Lastly, even the most aggressive CO2 mitigation steps as envisioned now can only limit further additions to the committed warming, but not reduce the already committed GHGs warming of 2.4°C. © 2008 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/162458
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Ramanathan, V., Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, San Diego, CA 92093-0221, United States; Feng, Y., Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, San Diego, CA 92093-0221, United States
Recommended Citation:
Ramanathan V.,Feng Y.. On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: Formidable challenges ahead[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2008-01-01,105(38)