DOI: 10.5194/hess-24-5439-2020
论文题名: Accelerated hydrological cycle over the Sanjiangyuan region induces more streamflow extremes at different global warming levels
作者: Ji P. ; Yuan X. ; Ma F. ; Pan M.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2020
卷: 24, 期: 11 起始页码: 5439
结束页码: 5451
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Carbon dioxide
; Climate models
; Ecology
; Global warming
; Physiology
; Stream flow
; Vegetation
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Ecological process
; Hydrological cycles
; Hydrological process
; Land surface modeling
; Land-cover change
; Recent researches
; Vegetation greening
; Rivers
; acceleration
; extreme event
; global warming
; hydrological cycle
; streamflow
; China
; Qinghai
; Sanjiangyuan
英文摘要: Serving source water for the Yellow, Yangtze and Lancang-Mekong rivers, the Sanjiangyuan region affects 700 million people over its downstream areas. Recent research suggests that the Sanjiangyuan region will become wetter in a warming future, but future changes of streamflow extremes remain unclear due to the complex hydrological processes over high-land areas and limited knowledge of the influences of land cover change and CO2 physiological forcing. Based on high-resolution land surface modeling during 1979-2100 driven by the climate and ecological projections from 11 newly released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models, we show that different accelerating rates of precipitation and evapotranspiration at 1.5 C global warming level induce 55 more dry extremes over Yellow River and 138 % more wet extremes over Yangtze River headwaters compared with the reference period (1985-2014). An additional 0.5 C warming leads to a further nonlinear and more significant increase for both dry extremes over Yellow River (22 %) and wet extremes over Yangtze River (64 %). The combined role of CO2 physiological forcing and vegetation greening, which used to be neglected in hydrological projections, is found to alleviate dry extremes at 1.5 and 2.0 C warming levels but to intensify dry extremes at 3.0 C warming level. Moreover, vegetation greening contributes half of the differences between 1.5 and 3.0 C warming levels. This study emphasizes the importance of ecological processes in determining future changes in streamflow extremes and suggests a "dry gets drier, wet gets wetter"condition over the warming headwaters. © Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/162546
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Ji, P., Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China, College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China; Yuan, X., School of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; Ma, F., School of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; Pan, M., Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Ji P.,Yuan X.,Ma F.,et al. Accelerated hydrological cycle over the Sanjiangyuan region induces more streamflow extremes at different global warming levels[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2020-01-01,24(11)