globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.5194/hess-24-5297-2020
论文题名:
Risk assessment in water resources planning under climate change at the Júcar River basin
作者: Suárez-Almiñana S.; Solera A.; Madrigal J.; Andreu J.; Paredes-Arquiola J.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2020
卷: 24, 期:11
起始页码: 5297
结束页码: 5315
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change ; Decision making ; Drought ; Risk assessment ; Watersheds ; Adaptive methodologies ; Climate change impact assessments ; Climate change projections ; Climate projection ; Correction process ; Management analysis ; Water resources planning ; Water resources systems ; Water resources ; climate change ; climate prediction ; complexity ; correction ; extreme event ; risk assessment ; water management ; water planning ; water resource ; Jucar Basin ; Spain ; Indicator indicator
英文摘要: Climate change and its possible effects on water resources has become an increasingly near threat. Therefore, the study of these impacts in highly regulated systems and those suffering extreme events is essential to deal with them effectively. This study responds to the need for an effective method to integrate climate change projections into water planning and management analysis in order to guide the decision-making, taking into account drought risk assessments. Therefore, this document presents a general and adaptive methodology based on a modeling chain and correction processes, whose main outcomes are the impacts on future natural inflows, a drought risk indicator, and the simulation of future water storage in the water resources system (WRS). This method was applied in the Júcar River basin (JRB) due to its complexity and the multiannual drought events it suffers recurrently. The results showed a worrying decrease in future inflows, as well as a high probability (≈80%) of being under 50 % of total capacity of the WRS in the near future. However, the uncertainty of the results was considerable from the mid-century onwards, indicating that the skill of climate projections needs to be improved in order to obtain more reliable results. Consequently, this paper also highlights the difficulties of developing this type of method, taking partial decisions to adapt them as far as possible to the basin in an attempt to obtain clearer conclusions on climate change impact assessments. Despite the high uncertainty, the results of the JRB call for action and the tool developed can be considered as a feasible and robust method to facilitate and support decision-making in complex basins for future water planning and management. © 2020 Author(s).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/162552
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Suárez-Almiñana, S., Research Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering (IIAMA), Universitat Politècnica de València, Valencia, 46022, Spain; Solera, A., Research Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering (IIAMA), Universitat Politècnica de València, Valencia, 46022, Spain; Madrigal, J., Research Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering (IIAMA), Universitat Politècnica de València, Valencia, 46022, Spain; Andreu, J., Research Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering (IIAMA), Universitat Politècnica de València, Valencia, 46022, Spain; Paredes-Arquiola, J., Research Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering (IIAMA), Universitat Politècnica de València, Valencia, 46022, Spain

Recommended Citation:
Suárez-Almiñana S.,Solera A.,Madrigal J.,et al. Risk assessment in water resources planning under climate change at the Júcar River basin[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2020-01-01,24(11)
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