globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.5194/hess-24-4109-2020
论文题名:
Estimation of annual runoff by exploiting long-Term spatial patterns and short records within a geostatistical framework
作者: Roksväg T.; Steinsland I.; Engeland K.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2020
卷: 24, 期:8
起始页码: 4109
结束页码: 4133
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Bayesian networks ; Catchments ; Interpolation ; Mean square error ; Stochastic models ; Stochastic systems ; Augmentation methods ; Laplace approximation ; Orographic precipitation ; Predictive performance ; Root mean squared errors ; Simple linear regression ; Spatial characteristics ; Stochastic partial differential equation ; Runoff ; Bayesian analysis ; climate conditions ; error analysis ; exploitation ; geostatistics ; hydrological modeling ; interpolation ; kriging ; runoff ; spatial analysis ; Norway
英文摘要: In this article, we present a Bayesian geostatistical framework that is particularly suitable for interpolation of hydrological data when the available dataset is sparse and includes both long and short records of runoff. A key feature of the proposed framework is that several years of runoff are modelled simultaneously with two spatial fields: one that is common for all years under study that represents the runoff generation due to long-Term (climatic) conditions and one that is year-specific. The climatic spatial field captures how short records of runoff from partially gauged catchments vary relative to longer time series from other catchments, and transfers this information across years. To make the Bayesian model computationally feasible and fast, we use integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLAs) and the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach to spatial modelling.

The geostatistical framework is demonstrated by filling in missing values of annual runoff and by predicting mean annual runoff for around 200 catchments in Norway. The predictive performance is compared to top-kriging (interpolation method) and simple linear regression (record augmentation method). The results show that if the runoff is driven by processes that are repeated over time (e.g. orographic precipitation patterns), the value of including short records in the suggested model is large. For partially gauged catchments the suggested framework performs better than comparable methods, and one annual observation from the target catchment can lead to a 50 % reduction in root mean squared error (RMSE) compared to when no observations are available from the target catchment. We also find that short records safely can be included in the framework regardless of the spatial characteristics of the underlying climate, and down to record lengths of 1 year. © 2020 Author(s).

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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/162613
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Roksväg, T., Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Ntnu, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Trondheim, Norway; Steinsland, I., Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Ntnu, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Trondheim, Norway; Engeland, K., Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Nve, Oslo, Norway

Recommended Citation:
Roksväg T.,Steinsland I.,Engeland K.. Estimation of annual runoff by exploiting long-Term spatial patterns and short records within a geostatistical framework[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2020-01-01,24(8)
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