globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.5194/hess-24-3311-2020
论文题名:
Simulations of future changes in thermal structure of Lake Erken: Proof of concept for ISIMIP2b lake sector local simulation strategy
作者: Ayala A.I.; Moras S.; Pierson D.C.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2020
卷: 24, 期:6
起始页码: 3311
结束页码: 3330
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Global warming ; Lakes ; Temperature ; Turbulence models ; Artificial neural network methods ; Lake water temperature ; Long term simulation ; Meteorological data ; Meteorological forcing ; One-dimensional hydrodynamic model ; Simulation strategies ; Surface water temperature ; Climate models ; climate modeling ; data set ; global warming ; hydrodynamics ; lake water ; one-dimensional modeling ; simulation ; thermal structure ; water temperature ; Lake Erken ; Stockholm [Sweden] ; Sweden ; Sweden
英文摘要: This paper, as a part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b), assesses the impacts of different levels of global warming on the thermal structure of Lake Erken (Sweden). The General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) one-dimensional hydrodynamic model was used to simulate water temperature when using ISIMIP2b bias-corrected climate model projections as input. These projections have a daily time step, while lake model simulations are often forced at hourly or shorter time steps. Therefore, it was necessary to first test the ability of GOTM to simulate Lake Erken water temperature using daily vs hourly meteorological forcing data. In order to do this, three data sets were used to force the model as follows: (1) hourly measured data, (2) daily average data derived from the first data set, and (3) synthetic hourly data created from the daily data set using generalised regression artificial neural network methods. This last data set is developed using a method that could also be applied to the daily time step ISIMIP scenarios to obtain hourly model input if needed. The lake model was shown to accurately simulate Lake Erken water temperature when forced with either daily or synthetic hourly data. Longterm simulations forced with daily or synthetic hourly meteorological data suggest that by the late 21st century the lake will undergo clear changes in thermal structure. For the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenario, namely RCP2.6, surface water temperature was projected to increase by 1.79 and 1.36 °C when the lake model was forced at daily and hourly resolutions respectively, and for RCP6.0 these increases were projected to be 3.08 and 2.31 °C. Changes in lake stability were projected to increase, and the stratification duration was projected to be longer by 13 and 11 d under RCP2.6 scenario and 22 and 18 d under RCP6.0 scenario for daily and hourly resolutions. Model changes in thermal indices were very similar when using either the daily or synthetic hourly forcing, suggesting that the original ISIMIP climate model projections at a daily time step can be sufficient for the purpose of simulating lake water temperature. © 2020 Author(s).
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/162655
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: Ayala, A.I., Department of Ecology and Genetics, Limnology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, 75236, Sweden, Nonlinearity and Climate Group, Department of Applied Physics, University of Geneva, Geneva 4, 1211, Switzerland; Moras, S., Department of Ecology and Genetics, Limnology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, 75236, Sweden; Pierson, D.C., Department of Ecology and Genetics, Limnology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, 75236, Sweden

Recommended Citation:
Ayala A.I.,Moras S.,Pierson D.C.. Simulations of future changes in thermal structure of Lake Erken: Proof of concept for ISIMIP2b lake sector local simulation strategy[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2020-01-01,24(6)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Ayala A.I.]'s Articles
[Moras S.]'s Articles
[Pierson D.C.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Ayala A.I.]'s Articles
[Moras S.]'s Articles
[Pierson D.C.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Ayala A.I.]‘s Articles
[Moras S.]‘s Articles
[Pierson D.C.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.