globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.5194/hess-24-2921-2020
论文题名:
Comparing Palmer Drought Severity Index drought assessments using the traditional offline approach with direct climate model outputs
作者: Yang Y.; Zhang S.; Roderick M.L.; McVicar T.R.; Yang D.; Liu W.; Li X.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2020
卷: 24, 期:6
起始页码: 2921
结束页码: 2930
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Carbon dioxide ; Climate change ; Drought ; Runoff ; Anthropogenic warming ; Climate projection ; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ; Drought severity ; Off-line approaches ; Palmer drought severity indices ; Systematic changes ; Vegetation response ; Climate models ; carbon dioxide ; climate change ; climate modeling ; CMIP ; concentration (composition) ; drought ; environmental assessment ; evapotranspiration ; hydrological modeling ; runoff ; vegetation
英文摘要: Anthropogenic warming has been projected to increase global drought for the 21st century when calculated using traditional offline drought indices. However, this contradicts observations of the overall global greening and little systematic change in runoff over the past few decades and climate projections of future greening with slight increases in global runoff for the coming century. This calls into question the drought projections based on traditional offline drought indices. Here we calculate a widely used traditional drought index (i.e., the Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI) using direct outputs from 16 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models (PDSI_CMIP5) such that the hydrologic consistency between PDSI_CMIP5 and CMIP5 models is maintained. We find that the PDSI_CMIP5-depicted drought increases (in terms of drought severity, frequency, and extent) are much smaller than that reported when PDSI is calculated using the traditional offline approach that has been widely used in previous drought assessments under climate change. Further analyses indicate that the overestimation of PDSI drought increases reported previously using the PDSI is primarily due to ignoring the vegetation response to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) in the traditional offline calculations. Finally, we show that the overestimation of drought using the traditional PDSI approach can be minimized by accounting for the effect of CO2 on evapotranspiration. © 2020 Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.. All rights reserved.
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/162675
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: Yang, Y., State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China; Zhang, S., State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Process and Resource Ecology, School of Natural Resources, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Roderick, M.L., Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia, Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Canberra, ACT, Australia; McVicar, T.R., Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Canberra, ACT, Australia, CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, ACT, Australia; Yang, D., State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China; Liu, W., Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Li, X., State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Process and Resource Ecology, School of Natural Resources, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

Recommended Citation:
Yang Y.,Zhang S.,Roderick M.L.,et al. Comparing Palmer Drought Severity Index drought assessments using the traditional offline approach with direct climate model outputs[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2020-01-01,24(6)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Yang Y.]'s Articles
[Zhang S.]'s Articles
[Roderick M.L.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Yang Y.]'s Articles
[Zhang S.]'s Articles
[Roderick M.L.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Yang Y.]‘s Articles
[Zhang S.]‘s Articles
[Roderick M.L.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.