DOI: 10.5194/hess-24-2671-2020
论文题名: Uncovering the shortcomings of a weather typing method
作者: Van Uytven E. ; De Niel J. ; Willems P.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2020
卷: 24, 期: 5 起始页码: 2671
结束页码: 2686
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Earth sciences
; Hydrology
; Clausius-Clapeyron relationship
; Down-scaling
; Global climate model
; Historical observation
; Precipitation change
; Statistical downscaling
; Thermodynamic process
; Winter seasons
; Climate models
; climate modeling
; downscaling
; global climate
; observational method
; precipitation (climatology)
; prediction
; thermodynamics
; winter
; Belgium
英文摘要: In recent years many methods for statistical downscaling of the precipitation climate model outputs have been developed. Statistical downscaling is performed under general and method-specific (structural) assumptions but those are rarely evaluated simultaneously. This paper illustrates the verification and evaluation of the downscaling assumptions for a weather typing method. Using the observations and outputs of a global climate model ensemble, the skill of the method is evaluated for precipitation downscaling in central Belgium during the winter season (December to February). Shortcomings of the studied method have been uncovered and are identified as biases and a time-variant predictor-predictand relationship. The predictor-predictand relationship is found to be informative for historical observations but becomes inaccurate for the projected climate model output. The latter inaccuracy is explained by the increased importance of the thermodynamic processes in the precipitation changes. The results therefore question the applicability of the weather typing method for the case study location. Besides the shortcomings, the results also demonstrate the added value of the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship for precipitation amount scaling. The verification and evaluation of the downscaling assumptions are a tool to design a statistical downscaling ensemble tailored to end-user needs. © 2020 Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/162685
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Van Uytven, E., Department of Civil Engineering, Hydraulics Section, KU Leuven, Kasteelpark 40, box 2448, Leuven, 3001, Belgium; De Niel, J., Department of Civil Engineering, Hydraulics Section, KU Leuven, Kasteelpark 40, box 2448, Leuven, 3001, Belgium; Willems, P., Department of Civil Engineering, Hydraulics Section, KU Leuven, Kasteelpark 40, box 2448, Leuven, 3001, Belgium, Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, Brussels, 1050, Belgium
Recommended Citation:
Van Uytven E.,De Niel J.,Willems P.. Uncovering the shortcomings of a weather typing method[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2020-01-01,24(5)