globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.5194/hess-24-1805-2020
论文题名:
Flood trends in Europe: Are changes in small and big floods different?
作者: Bertola M.; Viglione A.; Lun D.; Hall J.; Blöschl G.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2020
卷: 24, 期:4
起始页码: 1805
结束页码: 1822
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Catchments ; Markov chains ; Runoff ; Bayesian markov chain monte carlo ; Catchment scale ; Flood discharge ; Flood magnitudes ; Gumbel distribution ; Regional flood frequencies ; Regional pattern ; Sample uncertainty ; Floods ; catchment ; database ; discharge ; flood ; return period ; Europe
英文摘要: Recent studies have revealed evidence of trends in the median or mean flood discharge in Europe over the last 5 decades, with clear and coherent regional patterns. The aim of this study is to assess whether trends in flood discharges also occurred for larger return periods, accounting for the effect of catchment scale. We analyse 2370 flood discharge records, selected from a newly available pan-European flood database, with record length of at least 40 years over the period 1960-2010 and with contributing catchment area ranging from 5 to 100 000 km2. To estimate regional flood trends, we use a non-stationary regional flood frequency approach consisting of a regional Gumbel distribution, whose median and growth factor can vary in time with different strengths for different catchment sizes. A Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach is used for parameter estimation. We quantify regional trends (and the related sample uncertainties), for floods of selected return periods and for selected catchment areas, across Europe and for three regions where coherent flood trends have been identified in previous studies. Results show that in northwestern Europe the trends in flood magnitude are generally positive. In small catchments (up to 100 km2), the 100-year flood increases more than the median flood, while the opposite is observed in medium and large catchments, where even some negative trends appear, especially in northwestern France. In southern Europe flood trends are generally negative. The 100-year flood decreases less than the median flood, and, in the small catchments, the median flood decreases less compared to the large catchments. In eastern Europe the regional trends are negative and do not depend on the return period, but catchment area plays a substantial role: the larger the catchment, the more negative the trend. © Author(s) 2020.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/162733
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Bertola, M., Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Vienna University of Technology, Karlsplatz 13, Vienna, 1040, Austria; Viglione, A., Department of Environment, Land and Infrastructure Engineering (DIATI), Polytechnic University of Turin, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, Turin, 10129, Italy; Lun, D., Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Vienna University of Technology, Karlsplatz 13, Vienna, 1040, Austria; Hall, J., Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Vienna University of Technology, Karlsplatz 13, Vienna, 1040, Austria; Blöschl, G., Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Vienna University of Technology, Karlsplatz 13, Vienna, 1040, Austria

Recommended Citation:
Bertola M.,Viglione A.,Lun D.,et al. Flood trends in Europe: Are changes in small and big floods different?[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2020-01-01,24(4)
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