DOI: 10.5194/hess-24-595-2020
论文题名: Application of logistic regression to simulate the influence of rainfall genesis on storm overflow operations: A probabilistic approach
作者: Szelag B. ; Suligowski R. ; Studziński J. ; De Paola F.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2020
卷: 24, 期: 2 起始页码: 595
结束页码: 614
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Catchments
; Rain
; Runoff
; Stochastic systems
; Storms
; Water pollution
; Innovative solutions
; Logistic regression method
; Operational assessment
; Physical interpretation
; Potential reduction
; Probabilistic approaches
; Probabilistic modeling
; Rainfall characteristics
; Logistic regression
; catchment
; early warning system
; probability
; rainfall
; regression analysis
; stormwater
; Kielce
; Poland [Central Europe]
; Swietokrzyskie
英文摘要: One of the key parameters constituting the basis for the operational assessment of stormwater systems is the annual number of storm overflows. Since uncontrolled overflows are a source of pollution washed away from the surface of the catchment area, which leads to imbalanced receiving waters, there is a need for their prognosis and potential reduction. The paper presents a probabilistic model for simulating the annual number of storm overflows. In this model, an innovative solution is to use the logistic regression method to analyze the impact of rainfall genesis on the functioning of a storm overflow (OV) in the example of a catchment located in the city of Kielce (central Poland). The developed model consists of two independent elements. The first element of the model is a synthetic precipitation generator, in which the simulation of rainfall takes into account its genesis resulting from various processes and phenomena occurring in the troposphere. This approach makes it possible to account for the stochastic nature of rainfall in relation to the annual number of events. The second element is the model of logistic regression, which can be used to model the storm overflow resulting from the occurrence of a single rainfall event. The paper confirmed that storm overflow can be modeled based on data on the total rainfall and its duration. An alternative approach was also proposed, providing the possibility of predicting storm overflow only based on the average rainfall intensity. Substantial simplification in the simulation of the phenomenon under study was achieved compared with the works published in this area to date. It is worth noting that the coefficients determined in the logit models have a physical interpretation, and the universal character of these models facilitates their easy adaptation to other examined catchment areas. The calculations made in the paper using the example of the examined catchment allowed for an assessment of the influence of rainfall characteristics (depth, intensity, and duration) of different genesis on the probability of storm overflow. Based on the obtained results, the range of the variability of the average rainfall intensity, which determines the storm overflow, and the annual number of overflows resulting from the occurrence of rain of different genesis were defined. The results are suited for the implementation in the assessment of storm overflows only based on the genetic type of rainfall. The results may be used to develop warning systems in which information about the predicted rainfall genesis is an element of the assessment of the rainwater system and its facilities. This approach is an original solution that has not yet been considered by other researchers. On the other hand, it represents an important simplification and an opportunity to reduce the amount of data to be measured. © 2020 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/162795
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Szelag, B., Department of Geotechnics and Water Engineering, Kielce University of Technology, Kielce, 25-314, Poland; Suligowski, R., Department of Hydrology and Geo-Information, Jan Kochanowski University, Kielce, 25-406, Poland; Studziński, J., Centre for Computer Science Applications in Environmental Engineering, Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, 01-447, Poland; De Paola, F., Department of Civil Architectural and Environmental Engineering, University of Naples Federico II, via Claudio 21, Naples, 80125, Italy
Recommended Citation:
Szelag B.,Suligowski R.,Studziński J.,et al. Application of logistic regression to simulate the influence of rainfall genesis on storm overflow operations: A probabilistic approach[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2020-01-01,24(2)