DOI: 10.5194/hess-24-75-2020
论文题名: A global-scale evaluation of extreme event uncertainty in the eartH2Observe project
作者: Marthews T.R. ; Blyth E.M. ; Martínez-De La Torre A. ; Veldkamp T.I.E.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2020
卷: 24, 期: 1 起始页码: 75
结束页码: 92
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Digital storage
; Drought
; Evapotranspiration
; Floods
; Runoff
; Surface measurement
; Extreme conditions
; Land surface modelling
; Land surface models
; Model simulation
; Model uncertainties
; Modelling systems
; Precipitation products
; Satellite products
; Uncertainty analysis
; evapotranspiration
; extreme event
; hydrological modeling
; identification method
; land surface
; precipitation (climatology)
; prediction
; runoff
; satellite data
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Knowledge of how uncertainty propagates through a hydrological land surface modelling sequence is of crucial importance in the identification and characterisation of system weaknesses in the prediction of droughts and floods at global scale. We evaluated the performance of five state-of-the-art global hydrological and land surface models in the context of modelling extreme conditions (drought and flood). Uncertainty was apportioned between the model used (model skill) and also the satellite-based precipitation products used to drive the simulations (forcing data variability) for extreme values of precipitation, surface runoff and evaporation. We found in general that model simulations acted to augment uncertainty rather than reduce it. In percentage terms, the increase in uncertainty was most often less than the magnitude of the input data uncertainty, but of comparable magnitude in many environments. Uncertainty in predictions of evapotranspiration lows (drought) in dry environments was especially high, indicating that these circumstances are a weak point in current modelling system approaches. We also found that high data and model uncertainty points for both ET lows and runoff lows were disproportionately concentrated in the equatorial and southern tropics. Our results are important for highlighting the relative robustness of satellite products in the context of land surface simulations of extreme events and identifying areas where improvements may be made in the consistency of simulation models. © 2020 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/162822
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Marthews, T.R., Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Maclean Building, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, United Kingdom; Blyth, E.M., Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Maclean Building, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, United Kingdom; Martínez-De La Torre, A., Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Maclean Building, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, United Kingdom; Veldkamp, T.I.E., Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, HV Amsterdam, 1081, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Marthews T.R.,Blyth E.M.,Martínez-De La Torre A.,et al. A global-scale evaluation of extreme event uncertainty in the eartH2Observe project[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2020-01-01,24(1)