globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.5194/hess-23-2897-2019
论文题名:
On the uncertainty of initial condition and initialization approaches in variably saturated flow modeling
作者: Yu D.; Yang J.; Shi L.; Zhang Q.; Huang K.; Fang Y.; Zha Y.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2019
卷: 23, 期:7
起始页码: 2897
结束页码: 2914
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric movements ; Flow control ; Intelligent systems ; Iterative methods ; Parameter estimation ; Soil moisture ; Textures ; Uncertainty analysis ; Determination of model parameters ; Ensemble Kalman Filter ; Initial and boundary conditions ; Initial soil moisture ; Iterative ensemble smoothers ; Meteorological condition ; Parameter and state estimation ; Variably saturated flow ; Monte Carlo methods ; boundary condition ; data assimilation ; flow modeling ; hydrological modeling ; Kalman filter ; Monte Carlo analysis ; saturation ; soil profile ; soil water ; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Soil water movement has direct effects on environment, agriculture and hydrology. Simulation of soil water movement requires accurate determination of model parameters as well as initial and boundary conditions. However, it is difficult to obtain the accurate initial soil moisture or matric potential profile at the beginning of simulation time, making it necessary to run the simulation model from the arbitrary initial condition until the uncertainty of the initial condition (UIC) diminishes, which is often known as "warming up". In this paper, we compare two commonly used methods for quantifying the UIC (one is based on running a single simulation recursively across multiple hydrological years, and the other is based on Monte Carlo simulations with realization of various initial conditions) and identify the warmup time twu (minimum time required to eliminate the UIC by warming up the model) required with different soil textures, meteorological conditions and soil profile lengths. Then we analyze the effects of different initial conditions on parameter estimation within two data assimilation frameworks (i.e., ensemble Kalman filter and iterative ensemble smoother) and assess several existing model initializing methods that use available data to retrieve the initial soil moisture profile. Our results reveal that Monte Carlo simulations and the recursive simulation over many years can both demonstrate the temporal behavior of the UIC, and a common threshold is recommended to determine twu. Moreover, the relationship between twu for variably saturated flow modeling and the model settings (soil textures, meteorological conditions and soil profile length) is quantitatively identified. In addition, we propose a warm-up period before assimilating data in order to obtain a better performance for parameter and state estimation. © Author(s) 2019.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/162939
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Yu, D., State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, 430072, China; Yang, J., State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, 430072, China; Shi, L., State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, 430072, China; Zhang, Q., State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, 430072, China; Huang, K., Guangxi Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanning, Guangxi, 530023, China; Fang, Y., School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210098, China; Zha, Y., State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, 430072, China

Recommended Citation:
Yu D.,Yang J.,Shi L.,et al. On the uncertainty of initial condition and initialization approaches in variably saturated flow modeling[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2019-01-01,23(7)
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