globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.5194/hess-23-2279-2019
论文题名:
Multi-model approach to quantify groundwater-level prediction uncertainty using an ensemble of global climate models and multiple abstraction scenarios
作者: Mustafa S.M.T.; Moudud Hasan M.; Saha A.K.; Rannu R.P.; Van Uytven E.; Willems P.; Huysmans M.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2019
卷: 23, 期:5
起始页码: 2279
结束页码: 2303
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Abstracting ; Forecasting ; Greenhouse gases ; Groundwater ; Groundwater pollution ; Groundwater resources ; Uncertainty analysis ; Global climate model ; Groundwater abstraction ; Individual uncertainties ; Model uncertainties ; Multi-model ensemble ; Prediction uncertainty ; Sustainable management ; Uncertainty contributions ; Climate models ; climate modeling ; exploitation ; global climate ; greenhouse gas ; groundwater abstraction ; groundwater resource ; policy making ; prediction ; uncertainty analysis ; water level ; Bangladesh
英文摘要: Worldwide, groundwater resources are under a constant threat of overexploitation and pollution due to anthropogenic and climatic pressures. For sustainable management and policy making a reliable prediction of groundwater levels for different future scenarios is necessary. Uncertainties are present in these groundwater-level predictions and originate from greenhouse gas scenarios, climate models, conceptual hydro(geo)logical models (CHMs) and groundwater abstraction scenarios. The aim of this study is to quantify the individual uncertainty contributions using an ensemble of 2 greenhouse gas scenarios (representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5), 22 global climate models, 15 alternative CHMs and 5 groundwater abstraction scenarios. This multi-model ensemble approach was applied to a drought-prone study area in Bangladesh. Findings of this study, firstly, point to the strong dependence of the groundwater levels on the CHMs considered. All groundwater abstraction scenarios showed a significant decrease in groundwater levels. If the current groundwater abstraction trend continues, the groundwater level is predicted to decline about 5 to 6 times faster for the future period 2026-2047 compared to the baseline period (1985-2006). Even with a 30% lower groundwater abstraction rate, the mean monthly groundwater level would decrease by up to 14m in the southwestern part of the study area. The groundwater abstraction in the northwestern part of Bangladesh has to decrease by 60% of the current abstraction to ensure sustainable use of groundwater. Finally, the difference in abstraction scenarios was identified as the dominant uncertainty source. CHM uncertainty contributed about 23% of total uncertainty. The alternative CHM uncertainty contribution is higher than the recharge scenario uncertainty contribution, including the greenhouse gas scenario and climate model uncertainty contributions. It is recommended that future groundwater-level prediction studies should use multi-model and multiple climate and abstraction scenarios. © 2019 Author(s).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/162975
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Mustafa, S.M.T., Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB), Pleinlaan 2, Brussels, 1050, Belgium; Moudud Hasan, M., Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB), Pleinlaan 2, Brussels, 1050, Belgium; Saha, A.K., Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB), Pleinlaan 2, Brussels, 1050, Belgium; Rannu, R.P., Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB), Pleinlaan 2, Brussels, 1050, Belgium; Van Uytven, E., Department of Civil Engineering-Hydraulics Section, KU Leuven, Box-2448, Kasteelpark 40, Leuven, 3001, Belgium; Willems, P., Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB), Pleinlaan 2, Brussels, 1050, Belgium, Department of Civil Engineering-Hydraulics Section, KU Leuven, Box-2448, Kasteelpark 40, Leuven, 3001, Belgium; Huysmans, M., Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB), Pleinlaan 2, Brussels, 1050, Belgium

Recommended Citation:
Mustafa S.M.T.,Moudud Hasan M.,Saha A.K.,et al. Multi-model approach to quantify groundwater-level prediction uncertainty using an ensemble of global climate models and multiple abstraction scenarios[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2019-01-01,23(5)
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