DOI: 10.5194/hess-23-2261-2019
论文题名: Using a coupled agent-based modeling approach to analyze the role of risk perception in water management decisions
作者: Hyun J.-Y. ; Huang S.-Y. ; Yang Y.-C.E. ; Tidwell V. ; Macknick J.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2019
卷: 23, 期: 5 起始页码: 2261
结束页码: 2278
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Autonomous agents
; Bayesian networks
; Behavioral research
; Computational methods
; Inference engines
; Mapping
; Reservoir management
; Reservoirs (water)
; Simulation platform
; Water management
; Agent-based model
; Bayesian inference
; Decision making process
; Engineered systems
; Human decision making
; Management decisions
; Socio-economic conditions
; Streamflow changes
; Risk perception
; decision making
; human behavior
; modeling
; nature-society relations
; numerical model
; reservoir
; risk perception
; streamflow
; water management
; water resource
; watershed
; New Mexico
; San Juan River [United States]
; United States
英文摘要: Managing water resources in a complex adaptive natural-human system is a challenge due to the difficulty of modeling human behavior under uncertain risk perception. The interaction between human-engineered systems and natural processes needs to be modeled explicitly with an approach that can quantify the influence of incomplete/ambiguous information on decision-making processes. In this study, we two-way coupled an agent-based model (ABM) with a river-routing and reservoir management model (RiverWare) to address this challenge. The human decision-making processes is described in the ABM using Bayesian inference (BI) mapping joined with a cost-loss (CL) model (BC-ABM). Incorporating BI mapping into an ABM allows an agent's psychological thinking process to be specified by a cognitive map between decisions and relevant preceding factors that could affect decision-making. A risk perception parameter is used in the BI mapping to represent an agent's belief on the preceding factors. Integration of the CL model addresses an agent's behavior caused by changing socioeconomic conditions. We use the San Juan River basin in New Mexico, USA, to demonstrate the utility of this method. The calibrated BC-ABM-RiverWare model is shown to capture the dynamics of historical irrigated area and streamflow changes. The results suggest that the proposed BC-ABM framework provides an improved representation of human decision-making processes compared to conventional rule-based ABMs that do not take risk perception into account. Future studies will focus on modifying the BI mapping to consider direct agents' interactions, up-front cost of agent's decision, and upscaling the watershed ABM to the regional scale. © Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/162976
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Hyun, J.-Y., Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA, United States; Huang, S.-Y., Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA, United States; Yang, Y.-C.E., Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA, United States; Tidwell, V., Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, United States; Macknick, J., National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Hyun J.-Y.,Huang S.-Y.,Yang Y.-C.E.,et al. Using a coupled agent-based modeling approach to analyze the role of risk perception in water management decisions[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2019-01-01,23(5)