DOI: 10.5194/hess-23-1533-2019
论文题名: Future projections of temperature and mixing regime of European temperate lakes
作者: Shatwell T. ; Thiery W. ; Kirillin G.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2019
卷: 23, 期: 3 起始页码: 1533
结束页码: 1551
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Ice
; Mixing
; Sensitivity analysis
; Transparency
; Bottom temperature
; Climate projection
; Future projections
; Lake characteristics
; Mixed layer depths
; Seasonal differences
; Surface temperatures
; Water transparency
; Lakes
; air temperature
; climate effect
; ice cover
; mixing
; seasonality
; sensitivity analysis
; stratification
; temperate environment
; transparency
; weather forecasting
; Germany
英文摘要: The physical response of lakes to climate warming is regionally variable and highly dependent on individual lake characteristics, making generalizations about their development difficult. To qualify the role of individual lake characteristics in their response to regionally homogeneous warming, we simulated temperature, ice cover, and mixing in four intensively studied German lakes of varying morphology and mixing regime with a one-dimensional lake model. We forced the model with an ensemble of 12 climate projections (RCP4.5) up to 2100. The lakes were projected to warm at 0.10-0.11 °C decade-1, which is 75 %- 90% of the projected air temperature trend. In simulations, surface temperatures increased strongly in winter and spring, but little or not at all in summer and autumn. Mean bottom temperatures were projected to increase in all lakes, with steeper trends in winter and in shallower lakes. Modelled ice thaw and summer stratification advanced by 1.5- 2.2 and 1.4-1.8 days decade-1 respectively, whereas autumn turnover and winter freeze timing was less sensitive. The projected summer mixed-layer depth was unaffected by warming but sensitive to changes in water transparency. By midcentury, the frequency of ice and stratification-free winters was projected to increase by about 20 %, making ice cover rare and shifting the two deeper dimictic lakes to a predominantly monomictic regime. The polymictic lake was unlikely to become dimictic by the end of the century. A sensitivity analysis predicted that decreasing transparency would dampen the effect of warming on mean temperature but amplify its effect on stratification. However, this interaction was only predicted to occur in clear lakes, and not in the study lakes at their historical transparency. Not only lake morphology, but also mixing regime determines how heat is stored and ultimately how lakes respond to climate warming. Seasonal differences in climate warming rates are thus important and require more attention. © Author(s) 2019. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163015
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Shatwell, T., Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB), Department of Ecohydrology, Müggelseedamm 310, Berlin, 12587, Germany, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Department of Lake Research, Brückstrasse 3a, Magdeburg, 39114, Germany; Thiery, W., ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Universitaetstrasse 16, Zurich, 8092, Switzerland, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Pleinlaan 2, Brussels, 1050, Belgium; Kirillin, G., Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB), Department of Ecohydrology, Müggelseedamm 310, Berlin, 12587, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Shatwell T.,Thiery W.,Kirillin G.. Future projections of temperature and mixing regime of European temperate lakes[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2019-01-01,23(3)