DOI: 10.5194/hess-23-1145-2019
论文题名: Incorporating the logistic regression into a decision-centric assessment of climate change impacts on a complex river system
作者: Kim D. ; Ahn Chun J. ; Jung Choi S.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2019
卷: 23, 期: 2 起始页码: 1145
结束页码: 1162
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Computational efficiency
; Decision making
; Regression analysis
; Risk assessment
; Rivers
; Systems engineering
; Water management
; Water supply
; Watersheds
; Climate change impact
; Decision making process
; Environmental flow
; Environmental reliability
; Environmental risks
; Logistic regressions
; Performance metrics
; Water management policy
; Climate change
; assessment method
; climate change
; climate effect
; decision making
; environmental risk
; regression analysis
; river basin
; river system
; water demand
; water management
; water supply
; South Korea
英文摘要: Climate change is a global stressor that can undermine water management policies developed with the assumption of stationary climate. While the response-surfacebased assessments provided a new paradigm for formulating actionable adaptive solutions, the uncertainty associated with the stress tests poses challenges. To address the risks of unsatisfactory performances in a climate domain, this study proposed the incorporation of the logistic regression into a decision-centric framework. The proposed approach replaces the "response surfaces" of the performance metrics typically used for the decision-scaling framework with the "logistic surfaces" that describes the risk of system failures against predefined performance thresholds. As a case study, water supply and environmental reliabilities were assessed within the eco-engineering decision-scaling framework for a complex river basin in South Korea. Results showed that humandemand-only operations in the river basin could result in the water deficiency at a location requiring environmental flows. To reduce the environmental risks, the stakeholders could accept increasing risks of unsatisfactory water supply performance at the sub-basins with small water demands. This study suggests that the logistic surfaces could provide a computational efficiency to measure system robustness to climatic changes from multiple perspectives together with the risk information for decision-making processes. © 2019 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163036
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Kim, D., APEC Climate Center, Busan, 48058, South Korea; Ahn Chun, J., APEC Climate Center, Busan, 48058, South Korea; Jung Choi, S., Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Gyeonggi-do, 10223, South Korea
Recommended Citation:
Kim D.,Ahn Chun J.,Jung Choi S.. Incorporating the logistic regression into a decision-centric assessment of climate change impacts on a complex river system[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2019-01-01,23(2)