DOI: 10.5194/hess-23-989-2019
论文题名: A hybrid stochastic rainfall model that reproduces some important rainfall characteristics at hourly to yearly timescales
作者: Park J. ; Onof C. ; Kim D.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2019
卷: 23, 期: 2 起始页码: 989
结束页码: 1014
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Rain
; Statistics
; Stochastic systems
; Complex correlation
; Rainfall characteristics
; Rainfall statistics
; Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving averages
; Statistical characteristics
; Statistical properties
; Stochastic rainfall generations
; Stochastic rainfalls
; Stochastic models
; correlation
; model
; parameterization
; Poisson ratio
; rainfall
; stochasticity
; timescale
; Midwest
; United States
英文摘要: A novel approach to stochastic rainfall generation that can reproduce various statistical characteristics of observed rainfall at hourly to yearly timescales is presented. The model uses a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to generate monthly rainfall. Then, it downscales the generated monthly rainfall to the hourly aggregation level using the Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse (MBLRP) model, a type of Poisson cluster rainfall model. Here, the MBLRP model is carefully calibrated such that it can reproduce the sub-daily statistical properties of observed rainfall. This was achieved by first generating a set of fine-scale rainfall statistics reflecting the complex correlation structure between rainfall mean, variance, auto-covariance, and proportion of dry periods, and then coupling it to the generated monthly rainfall, which were used as the basis of the MBLRP parameterization. The approach was tested on 34 gauges located in the Midwest to the east coast of the continental United States with a variety of rainfall characteristics. The results of the test suggest that our hybrid model accurately reproduces the first- to the third-order statistics as well as the intermittency properties from the hourly to the annual timescales, and the statistical behaviour of monthly maxima and extreme values of the observed rainfall were reproduced well. © 2019 Author(s) 2019.All right reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163042
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Park, J., Department of Civil Engineering, Hongik University, Seoul, 04066, South Korea; Onof, C., Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College, London, SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom; Kim, D., Department of Civil Engineering, Hongik University, Seoul, 04066, South Korea
Recommended Citation:
Park J.,Onof C.,Kim D.. A hybrid stochastic rainfall model that reproduces some important rainfall characteristics at hourly to yearly timescales[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2019-01-01,23(2)