DOI: 10.5194/hess-23-871-2019
论文题名: Climate or land cover variations: What is driving observed changes in river peak flows A data-based attribution study
作者: De Niel J. ; Willems P.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2019
卷: 23, 期: 2 起始页码: 871
结束页码: 882
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Catchments
; Climate models
; Land use
; Rivers
; Runoff
; Catchment characteristics
; Climate variability
; Hydrological cycles
; Hydrological impacts
; Hydrological regime
; Interaction effect
; Land use and land cover change
; Statistical modeling
; Climate change
; catchment
; climate change
; climate effect
; flooding
; hydrological cycle
; hydrological regime
; land cover
; loam
; peak flow
; river flow
; Belgium
; Flanders
英文摘要: Climate change and land cover changes are influencing the hydrological regime of rivers worldwide. In Flanders (Belgium), the intensification of the hydrological cycle caused by climate change is projected to cause more flooding in winters, and land use and land cover changes could amplify these effects by, for example, making runoff on paved surfaces faster. The relative importance of both drivers, however, is still uncertain, and interaction effects between both drivers are not yet well understood. In order to better understand the hydrological impact of climate variations and land cover changes, including their interaction effects, we fitted a statistical model for historical data over 3 decades for 29 catchments in Flanders. The model is able to explain 60 % of the changes in river peak flows over time. It was found that catchment characteristics explain up to 18 % of changes in river peak flows, 6 % of changes in climate variability and 8 % of land cover changes. Steep catchments and catchments with a high proportion of loamic soils are subject to higher peak flows, and an increase in urban area of 1 % might cause increases in river peak flows up to 5 %. Interactions between catchment characteristics, climate variations and land cover changes explain up to 32 % of the peak-flow changes, where flat catchments with a low loamic soil content are more sensitive to land cover changes with respect to peak-flow anomalies. This shows the importance of including such interaction terms in data-based attribution studies. © 2019. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163049
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: De Niel, J., KU Leuven, Hydraulics Section, Department of Civil Engineering, Kasteelpark Arenberg 40, Leuven, 3001, Belgium; Willems, P., KU Leuven, Hydraulics Section, Department of Civil Engineering, Kasteelpark Arenberg 40, Leuven, 3001, Belgium
Recommended Citation:
De Niel J.,Willems P.. Climate or land cover variations: What is driving observed changes in river peak flows A data-based attribution study[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2019-01-01,23(2)