DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-6043-2018
论文题名: A simple tool for refining GCM water availability projections; applied to Chinese catchments
作者: Osborne J.M. ; Hugo Lambert F.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2018
卷: 22, 期: 11 起始页码: 6043
结束页码: 6057
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Catchments
; Functions
; Rivers
; Runoff
; Water management
; Emissions scenarios
; Future generations
; Global climate model
; Hydrological models
; Multi-model ensemble
; Nonlinear functions
; Water availability
; Water management policy
; Climate models
; anthropogenic effect
; aridity
; catchment
; climate modeling
; hydrological modeling
; runoff
; twenty first century
; water availability
; China
; Yangtze River
; Yellow River
英文摘要: There is a growing desire for reliable 21st-century projections of water availability at the regional scale. Global climate models (GCMs) are typically used together with global hydrological models (GHMs) to generate such projections. GCMs alone are unsuitable, especially if they have biased representations of aridity. The Budyko framework represents how water availability varies as a non-linear function of aridity and is used here to constrain projections of runoff from GCMs, without the need for computationally expensive GHMs. Considering a Chinese case study, we first apply the framework to observations to show that the contribution of direct human impacts (water consumption) to the significant decline in Yellow River runoff was greater than the contribution of aridity change by a factor of approximately 2, although we are unable to rule out a significant contribution from the net effect of all other factors. We then show that the Budyko framework can be used to narrow the range of Yellow River runoff projections by 34%, using a multi-model ensemble and the high-end Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. This increases confidence that the Yellow River will see an increase in runoff due to aridity change by the end of the 21st century. Yangtze River runoff projections change little, since aridity biases in GCMs are less substantial. Our approach serves as a quick and inexpensive tool to rapidly update and correct projections from GCMs alone. This could serve as a valuable resource when determining the water management policies required to alleviate water stress for future generations. © 2018 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163129
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Osborne, J.M., College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Hugo Lambert, F., College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Osborne J.M.,Hugo Lambert F.. A simple tool for refining GCM water availability projections; applied to Chinese catchments[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2018-01-01,22(11)