globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-5387-2018
论文题名:
Future hot-spots for hydro-hazards in Great Britain: A probabilistic assessment
作者: Collet L.; Harrigan S.; Prudhomme C.; Formetta G.; Beevers L.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2018
卷: 22, 期:10
起始页码: 5387
结束页码: 5401
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models ; Drought ; Floods ; Hazards ; Uncertainty analysis ; Water management ; Climate change impact ; Climatic risks ; England and Wales ; Probabilistic assessments ; Statistical database ; Statistical framework ; Threshold methods ; Water management policy ; Climate change ; climate change ; climate modeling ; database ; drought ; flood ; hydrometeorology ; probability ; uncertainty analysis ; water management ; England ; Scotland ; United Kingdom ; Wales
英文摘要: In an increasing hydro-climatic risk context as a result of climate change, this work aims to identify future hydro-hazard hot-spots as a result of climate change across Great Britain. First, flood and drought hazards were defined and selected in a consistent and parallel approach with a threshold method. Then, a nation-wide systematic and robust statistical framework was developed to quantify changes in frequency, magnitude, and duration, and assess time of year for both droughts and floods, and the uncertainty associated with climate model projections. This approach was applied to a spatially coherent statistical database of daily river flows (Future Flows Hydrology) across Great Britain to assess changes between the baseline (1961-1990) and the 2080s (2069-2098). The results showed that hydro-hazard hot-spots are likely to develop along the western coast of England and Wales and across north-eastern Scotland, mainly during the winter (floods) and autumn (droughts) seasons, with a higher increase in drought hazard in terms of magnitude and duration. These results suggest a need for adapting water management policies in light of climate change impact, not only on the magnitude, but also on the timing of hydro-hazard events, and future policy should account for both extremes together, alongside their potential future evolution. © 2018 Annales Geophysicae. All rights reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163165
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Collet, L., Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh Campus, Edinburgh, EH14 4AS, United Kingdom, Irstea, 1 rue Pierre Gilles de Gennes, Antony, 92 160, France; Harrigan, S., European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Road, Reading, RG2 9AX, United Kingdom, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, United Kingdom; Prudhomme, C., European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Road, Reading, RG2 9AX, United Kingdom, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, United Kingdom, Loughborough University, Epinal Way, Loughborough, LE11 3TU, United Kingdom; Formetta, G., Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, United Kingdom; Beevers, L., Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh Campus, Edinburgh, EH14 4AS, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Collet L.,Harrigan S.,Prudhomme C.,et al. Future hot-spots for hydro-hazards in Great Britain: A probabilistic assessment[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2018-01-01,22(10)
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