globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-5125-2018
论文题名:
Season-ahead forecasting of water storage and irrigation requirements-an application to the southwest monsoon in India
作者: Ravindranath A.; Devineni N.; Lall U.; Larrauri P.C.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2018
卷: 22, 期:10
起始页码: 5125
结束页码: 5141
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric thermodynamics ; Errors ; Mean square error ; Nearest neighbor search ; Risk management ; Water management ; Weather forecasting ; Irrigation requirements ; Leave-one-out cross validations ; Management decisions ; Methodological frameworks ; Precipitation forecast ; Ranked probability skill scores ; Root mean squared errors ; Water risk managements ; Risk assessment ; Solanum tuberosum
英文摘要: Water risk management is a ubiquitous challenge faced by stakeholders in the water or agricultural sector. We present a methodological framework for forecasting water storage requirements and present an application of this methodology to risk assessment in India. The application focused on forecasting crop water stress for potatoes grown during the monsoon season in the Satara district of Maharashtra. Pre-season large-scale climate predictors used to forecast water stress were selected based on an exhaustive search method that evaluates for highest ranked probability skill score and lowest root-mean-squared error in a leave-one-out cross-validation mode. Adaptive forecasts were made in the years 2001 to 2013 using the identified predictors and a non-parametric k-nearest neighbors approach. The accuracy of the adaptive forecasts (2001-2013) was judged based on directional concordance and contingency metrics such as hit/miss rate and false alarms. Based on these criteria, our forecasts were correct 9 out of 13 times, with two misses and two false alarms. The results of these drought forecasts were compared with precipitation forecasts from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). We assert that it is necessary to couple informative water stress indices with an effective forecasting methodology to maximize the utility of such indices, thereby optimizing water management decisions. © 2018 Author(s).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163179
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Ravindranath, A., Department of Civil Engineering, Center for Water Resources and Environmental Research, City Water Center, NOAA Center for Earth System Sciences and Remote Sensing Technologies, City University of New York (City College), New York, NY 10031, United States; Devineni, N., Department of Civil Engineering, Center for Water Resources and Environmental Research, City Water Center, NOAA Center for Earth System Sciences and Remote Sensing Technologies, City University of New York (City College), New York, NY 10031, United States; Lall, U., Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia Water Center, Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, United States; Larrauri, P.C., Columbia Water Center, Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, United States

Recommended Citation:
Ravindranath A.,Devineni N.,Lall U.,et al. Season-ahead forecasting of water storage and irrigation requirements-an application to the southwest monsoon in India[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2018-01-01,22(10)
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