DOI: 10.5194/he-22-5021-2018
论文题名: Parameter uncertainty analysis for an operational hydrological model using residual-based and limits of acceptability approaches
作者: Teweldebrhan A.T. ; Burkhart J.F. ; Schuler T.V.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2018
卷: 22, 期: 9 起始页码: 5021
结束页码: 5039
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Behavioral research
; Catchments
; Climate models
; Glues
; Gluing
; Remote sensing
; Runoff
; Snow
; Stream flow
; Catchment response
; Degree of relaxation
; Empirical approach
; Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation
; Hydrological modeling
; Observation errors
; Parameter uncertainty
; Streamflow uncertainty
; Uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Parameter uncertainty estimation is one of the major challenges in hydrological modeling. Here we present parameter uncertainty analysis of a recently released distributed conceptual hydrological model applied in the Nea catchment, Norway. Two variants of the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodologies, one based on the residuals and the other on the limits of acceptability, were employed. Streamflow and remote sensing snow cover data were used in conditioning model parameters and in model validation. When using the GLUE limit of acceptability (GLUE LOA) approach, a streamflow observation error of 25 % was aßumed. Neither the original limits nor relaxing the limits up to a physically meaningful value yielded a behavioral model capable of predicting streamflow within the limits in 100 % of the observations. As an alternative to relaxing the limits, the requirement for the percentage of model predictions falling within the original limits was relaxed. An empirical approach was introduced to define the degree of relaxation. The result shows that snow- and water-balance-related parameters induce relatively higher streamflow uncertainty than catchment response parameters. Comparable results were obtained from behavioral models selected using the two GLUE methodologies. © Author(s) 2018. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163187
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Teweldebrhan, A.T., Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway; Burkhart, J.F., Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway, Statkraft, Oslo, Norway; Schuler, T.V., Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Recommended Citation:
Teweldebrhan A.T.,Burkhart J.F.,Schuler T.V.. Parameter uncertainty analysis for an operational hydrological model using residual-based and limits of acceptability approaches[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2018-01-01,22(9)