globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-4155-2018
论文题名:
Convective suppression before and during the United States Northern Great Plains flash drought of 2017
作者: Gerken T.; Bromley G.T.; Ruddell B.L.; Williams S.; Stoy P.C.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2018
卷: 22, 期:8
起始页码: 4155
结束页码: 4163
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Landforms ; Rain ; Weather forecasting ; Convective precipitation ; Convective rain ; Drought conditions ; Growing season ; Land-atmosphere couplings ; Northern great plains ; Potential evapotranspiration ; Tropospheric humidity ; Drought ; atmospheric convection ; drought ; humidity ; land-atmosphere interaction ; micrometeorology ; potential evapotranspiration ; precipitation (climatology) ; troposphere ; Great Plains ; Montana ; North Dakota ; United States
英文摘要: Flash droughts tend to be disproportionately destructive because they intensify rapidly and are difficult to prepare for. We demonstrate that the 2017 US Northern Great Plains (NGP) flash drought was preceded by a breakdown of land-atmosphere coupling. Severe drought conditions in the NGP were first identified by drought monitors in late May 2017 and rapidly progressed to exceptional drought in July. The likelihood of convective precipitation in May 2017 in northeastern Montana, however, resembled that of a typical August when rain is unlikely. Based on the lower tropospheric humidity index (HIlow), convective rain was suppressed by the atmosphere on nearly 50% of days during March in NE Montana and central North Dakota, compared to 30% during a normal year. Micrometeorological variables, including potential evapotranspiration (ETp), were neither anomalously high nor low before the onset of drought. Incorporating convective likelihood to drought forecasts would have noted that convective precipitation in the NGP was anomalously unlikely during the early growing season of 2017. It may therefore be useful to do so in regions that rely on convective precipitation. © 2018 Author(s).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163235
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Gerken, T., Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717, United States, School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, United States; Bromley, G.T., Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717, United States; Ruddell, B.L., School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, United States; Williams, S., Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717, United States; Stoy, P.C., Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717, United States

Recommended Citation:
Gerken T.,Bromley G.T.,Ruddell B.L.,et al. Convective suppression before and during the United States Northern Great Plains flash drought of 2017[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2018-01-01,22(8)
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