globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-3933-2018
论文题名:
Mean and extreme precipitation over European river basins better simulated in a 25 km AGCM
作者: Schiemann R.; Luigi Vidale P.; Shaffrey L.C.; Johnson S.J.; Roberts M.J.; Demory M.-E.; Mizielinski M.S.; Strachan J.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2018
卷: 22, 期:7
起始页码: 3933
结束页码: 3950
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Estimation ; Mean square error ; Precipitation (meteorology) ; Rivers ; Watersheds ; Daily precipitations ; Different resolutions ; Extreme precipitation ; Generalised extreme value distributions ; High-resolution models ; Interannual variability ; Location and scale parameters ; Root mean square errors ; Climate models ; atmospheric general circulation model ; climate modeling ; experimental study ; extreme event ; global climate ; precipitation (climatology) ; precipitation assessment ; river basin ; simulation ; spatial resolution ; Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes ; Europe ; France ; Loire ; Poland [Central Europe] ; Vistula Basin
英文摘要: Limited spatial resolution is one of the factors that may hamper applications of global climate models (GCMs), in particular over Europe with its complex coastline and orography. In this study, the representation of European mean and extreme precipitation is evaluated in simulations with an atmospheric GCM (AGCM) at different resolutions between about 135 and 25 km grid spacing in the mid-latitudes. The continent-wide root-mean-square error in mean precipitation in the 25 km model is about 25  % smaller than in the 135 km model in winter. Clear improvements are also seen in autumn and spring, whereas the model's sensitivity to resolution is very small in summer. Extreme precipitation is evaluated by estimating generalised extreme value distributions (GEVs) of daily precipitation aggregated over river basins whose surface area is greater than 50 000 km2. GEV location and scale parameters are measures of the typical magnitude and of the interannual variability of extremes, respectively. Median model biases in both these parameters are around 10 % in summer and around 20 % in the other seasons. For some river basins, however, these biases can be much larger and take values between 50 % and 100 %. Extreme precipitation is better simulated in the 25 km model, especially during autumn when the median GEV parameter biases are more than halved, and in the North European Plains, from the Loire in the west to the Vistula in the east. A sensitivity experiment is conducted showing that these resolution sensitivities in both mean and extreme precipitation are in many areas primarily due to the increase in resolution of the model orography. The findings of this study illustrate the improved capability of a global high-resolution model in simulating European mean and extreme precipitation. © Author(s) 2018.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163248
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Schiemann, R., National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Luigi Vidale, P., National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Shaffrey, L.C., National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Johnson, S.J., National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom; Roberts, M.J., Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Demory, M.-E., National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom, Center for Space and Habitability, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Mizielinski, M.S., Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Strachan, J., National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Schiemann R.,Luigi Vidale P.,Shaffrey L.C.,et al. Mean and extreme precipitation over European river basins better simulated in a 25 km AGCM[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2018-01-01,22(7)
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