DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-3453-2018
论文题名: Seasonal streamflow forecasts for Europe-Part I: Hindcast verification with pseudo- A nd real observations
作者: Greuell W. ; Franssen W.H.P. ; Biemans H. ; Hutjes R.W.A.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2018
卷: 22, 期: 6 起始页码: 3453
结束页码: 3472
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Stream flow
; Correlation coefficient
; Discharge observations
; Hydrological condition
; Hydrological modeling
; Meteorological observation
; Ranked probability skill scores
; Relative operating characteristics
; Variable infiltration capacities
; Forecasting
; crop yield
; discharge
; forecasting method
; hindcasting
; infiltration
; observational method
; optimization
; power generation
; probability
; river flow
; seasonality
; streamflow
; Bulgaria
; Fennoscandia
; Germany
; Romania
; United Kingdom
英文摘要: Seasonal predictions of river flow can be exploited among others to optimise hydropower energy generation, navigability of rivers and irrigation management to decrease crop yield losses. This paper is the first of two papers dealing with a physical model-based system built to produce probabilistic seasonal hydrological forecasts, applied here to Europe. This paper presents the development of the system and the evaluation of its skill. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model is forced with bias-corrected output of ECMWF's seasonal forecast system 4. For the assessment of skill, we analysed hindcasts (1981-2010) against a reference run, in which VIC was forced by gridded meteorological observations. The reference run was also used to generate initial hydrological conditions for the hindcasts. The skill in run-off and discharge hindcasts is analysed with monthly temporal resolution, up to 7 months of lead time, for the entire annual cycle. Using the reference run output as pseudo-observations and taking the correlation coefficient as metric, hot spots of significant theoretical skill in discharge and run-off were identified in Fennoscandia (from January to October), the southern part of the Mediterranean (from June to August), Poland, northern Germany, Romania and Bulgaria (mainly from November to January), western France (from December to May) and the eastern side of Great Britain (January to April). Generally, the skill decreases with increasing lead time, except in spring in regions with snow-rich winters. In some areas some skill persists even at the longest lead times (7 months). Theoretical skill was compared to actual skill as determined with real discharge observations from 747 stations. Actual skill is generally substantially less than theoretical skill. This effect is stronger for small basins than for large basins. Qualitatively, the use of different skill metrics (correlation coefficient; relative operating characteristics, ROC, area; and ranked probability skill score, RPSS) leads to broadly similar spatiooral patterns of skill, but the level of skill decreases, and the area of skill shrinks, in the following order: Correlation coefficient; ROC area below-normal (BN) tercile; ROC area above-normal (AN) tercile; ranked probability skill score; and, finally, ROC near-normal (NN) tercile. © 2018 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163272
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Greuell, W., Water Systems and Global Change, Wageningen University, Droevendaalsesteeg 3, PB Wageningen, 6708, Netherlands; Franssen, W.H.P., Water Systems and Global Change, Wageningen University, Droevendaalsesteeg 3, PB Wageningen, 6708, Netherlands; Biemans, H., Water and Food Wageningen Environmental Research, Droevendaalsesteeg 3, PB Wageningen, 6708, Netherlands; Hutjes, R.W.A., Water Systems and Global Change, Wageningen University, Droevendaalsesteeg 3, PB Wageningen, 6708, Netherlands, Water and Food Wageningen Environmental Research, Droevendaalsesteeg 3, PB Wageningen, 6708, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Greuell W.,Franssen W.H.P.,Biemans H.,et al. Seasonal streamflow forecasts for Europe-Part I: Hindcast verification with pseudo- A nd real observations[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2018-01-01,22(6)