DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-3409-2018
论文题名: The benefit of seamless forecasts for hydrological predictions over Europe
作者: Wetterhall F. ; Di Giuseppe F.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2018
卷: 22, 期: 6 起始页码: 3409
结束页码: 3420
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Integration
; Ensemble forecasting
; Ensemble prediction systems
; Hydrological prediction
; Long-range forecasts
; Seamless integration
; Seasonal forecasting
; Seasonal forecasts
; Spatial and temporal resolutions
; Weather forecasting
; ensemble forecasting
; hydrological cycle
; long range forecast
; prediction
; seasonal variation
; spatial resolution
; timescale
; Europe
英文摘要: Two different systems provide long-range forecasts at ECMWF. On the sub-seasonal timescale, ECMWF issues an extended-range ensemble prediction system (ENS-ER) which runs a 46-day forecast integration issued twice weekly. On longer timescales, the current seasonal forecasting system (SYS4) produces a 7-month outlook starting from the first of each month. SYS4 uses an older model version and has lower spatial and temporal resolution than ENS-ER, which is issued with the current operational ensemble forecasting system. Given the substantial differences between the ENS-ER and the SYS4 configurations and the difficulties of creating a seamless integration, applications that rely on weather forcing as input such as the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) often follow the route of the creation of two separate systems for different forecast horizons. This study evaluates the benefit of a seamless integration of the two systems for hydrological applications and shows that the seamless system outperforms SYS4 in terms of skill for the first 4 weeks, but both forecasts are biased. The benefit of the new seamless system when compared to the seasonal forecast can be attributed to (1) the use of a more recent model version in the sub-seasonal range (first 46 days) and (2) the much more frequent updates of the meteorological forecast. © 2018 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163278
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Wetterhall, F., European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom; Di Giuseppe, F., European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Wetterhall F.,Di Giuseppe F.. The benefit of seamless forecasts for hydrological predictions over Europe[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2018-01-01,22(6)