globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-3155-2018
论文题名:
Interannual-to-multidecadal hydroclimate variability and its sectoral impacts in northeastern Argentina
作者: Lovino M.A.; Müller O.V.; Müller G.V.; Sgroi L.C.; Baethgen W.E.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2018
卷: 22, 期:6
起始页码: 3155
结束页码: 3174
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Agriculture ; Atmospheric pressure ; Climatology ; Drought ; Oceanography ; Principal component analysis ; Soil moisture ; Spectrum analysis ; Stream flow ; Surface waters ; Hydro-power generation ; Hydroclimatic variability ; Hydrological droughts ; Inter-decadal variability ; Precipitation variability ; Singular spectrum analysis ; Soil moisture deficits ; Southern oscillation ; Surface water resources ; annual variation ; climate effect ; climate forcing ; climate variation ; decadal variation ; El Nino-Southern Oscillation ; extreme event ; human settlement ; hydrometeorology ; periodicity ; precipitation (climatology) ; sea surface temperature ; streamflow ; Argentina ; Atlantic Ocean ; Atlantic Ocean (South) ; Indian Ocean ; Pacific Ocean ; Parana River ; Hordeum ; Triticum aestivum
英文摘要: This study examines the joint variability of precipitation, river streamflow and temperature over northeastern Argentina; advances the understanding of their links with global SST forcing; and discusses their impacts on water resources, agriculture and human settlements. The leading patterns of variability, and their nonlinear trends and cycles are identified by means of a principal component analysis (PCA) complemented with a singular spectrum analysis (SSA). Interannual hydroclimatic variability centers on two broad frequency bands: one of 2.5-6.5 years corresponding to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) periodicities and the second of about 9 years. The higher frequencies of the precipitation variability (2.5-4 years) favored extreme events after 2000, even during moderate extreme phases of the ENSO. Minimum temperature is correlated with ENSO with a main frequency close to 3 years. Maximum temperature time series correlate well with SST variability over the South Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans with a 9-year frequency. Interdecadal variability is characterized by low-frequency trends and multidecadal oscillations that have induced a transition from dryer and cooler climate to wetter and warmer decades starting in the mid-twentieth century. The Paraná River streamflow is influenced by North and South Atlantic SSTs with bidecadal periodicities. The hydroclimate variability at all timescales had significant sectoral impacts. Frequent wet events between 1970 and 2005 favored floods that affected agricultural and livestock productivity and forced population displacements. On the other hand, agricultural droughts resulted in soil moisture deficits that affected crops at critical growth stages. Hydrological droughts affected surface water resources, causing water and food scarcity and stressing the capacity for hydropower generation. Lastly, increases in minimum temperature reduced wheat and barley yields. © Author(s) 2018.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163293
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作者单位: Lovino, M.A., Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Buenos Aires, Argentina, Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climático (CEVARCAM), Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas, Universidad Nacional Del Litoral, Santa Fe, Argentina; Müller, O.V., Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Buenos Aires, Argentina, Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climático (CEVARCAM), Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas, Universidad Nacional Del Litoral, Santa Fe, Argentina; Müller, G.V., Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Buenos Aires, Argentina, Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climático (CEVARCAM), Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas, Universidad Nacional Del Litoral, Santa Fe, Argentina; Sgroi, L.C., Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climático (CEVARCAM), Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas, Universidad Nacional Del Litoral, Santa Fe, Argentina; Baethgen, W.E., International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, United States

Recommended Citation:
Lovino M.A.,Müller O.V.,Müller G.V.,et al. Interannual-to-multidecadal hydroclimate variability and its sectoral impacts in northeastern Argentina[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2018-01-01,22(6)
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