DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-3053-2018
论文题名: Integrated assessment of future potential global change scenarios and their hydrological impacts in coastal aquifers - A new tool to analyse management alternatives in the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer
作者: Pulido-Velazquez D. ; Renau-Pruñonosa A. ; Llopis-Albert C. ; Morell I. ; Collados-Lara A.-J. ; Senent-Aparicio J. ; Baena-Ruiz L.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2018
卷: 22, 期: 5 起始页码: 3053
结束页码: 3074
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Aquifers
; Budget control
; Chains
; Climate change
; Groundwater resources
; Hydrogeology
; Irrigation
; Land use
; Quality control
; Rain
; Sea level
; Sensitivity analysis
; Uncertainty analysis
; Adaptation management strategies
; Density dependent flow
; Hydrological impacts
; Integrated assessment
; Irrigation requirements
; Land use and land cover
; Multi Criteria Analysis
; Sequential coupling
; Recharging (underground waters)
; assessment method
; climate modeling
; coastal aquifer
; conceptual framework
; downscaling
; future prospect
; global change
; groundwater resource
; hydrological modeling
; integrated approach
; land cover
; land use
; Mediterranean environment
; multicriteria analysis
; rainfall
; recharge
; scenario analysis
; sensitivity analysis
; sustainable development
; water budget
; Castellon
; Comunidad Valencia
; Spain
; Torreblanca
英文摘要: Any change in the components of the water balance in a coastal aquifer, whether natural or anthropogenic, can alter the freshwater-salt water equilibrium. In this sense climate change (CC) and land use and land cover (LULC) change might significantly influence the availability of groundwater resources in the future. These coastal systems demand an integrated analysis of quantity and quality issues to obtain an appropriate assessment of hydrological impacts using density-dependent flow solutions. The aim of this work is to perform an integrated analysis of future potential global change (GC) scenarios and their hydrological impacts in a coastal aquifer, the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer. It is a Mediterranean aquifer that extends over 75km2 in which important historical LULC changes have been produced and are planned for the future. Future CC scenarios will be defined by using an equi-feasible and non-feasible ensemble of projections based on the results of a multi-criteria analysis of the series generated from several regional climatic models with different downscaling approaches. The hydrological impacts of these CC scenarios combined with future LULC scenarios will be assessed with a chain of models defined by a sequential coupling of rainfall-recharge models, crop irrigation requirements and irrigation return models (for the aquifer and its neighbours that feed it), and a density-dependent aquifer approach. This chain of models, calibrated using the available historical data, allow testing of the conceptual approximation of the aquifer behaviour. They are also fed with series representatives of potential global change scenarios in order to perform a sensitivity analysis regarding future scenarios of rainfall recharge, lateral flows coming from the hydraulically connected neighbouring aquifer, agricultural recharge (taking into account expected future LULC changes) and sea level rise (SLR). The proposed analysis is valuable for improving our knowledge about the aquifer, and so comprises a tool to design sustainable adaptation management strategies taking into account the uncertainty in future GC conditions and their impacts. The results show that GC scenarios produce significant increases in the variability of flow budget components and in the salinity. © Author(s) 2018. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163296
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Pulido-Velazquez, D., Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, Granada, Spain, Universidad Católica de Murcia, Murcia, Spain; Renau-Pruñonosa, A., Jaume i University, Castellón, Spain; Llopis-Albert, C., Universitat Politècnica de València, Valencia, Spain; Morell, I., Jaume i University, Castellón, Spain; Collados-Lara, A.-J., Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, Granada, Spain; Senent-Aparicio, J., Universidad Católica de Murcia, Murcia, Spain; Baena-Ruiz, L., Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, Granada, Spain
Recommended Citation:
Pulido-Velazquez D.,Renau-Pruñonosa A.,Llopis-Albert C.,et al. Integrated assessment of future potential global change scenarios and their hydrological impacts in coastal aquifers - A new tool to analyse management alternatives in the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2018-01-01,22(5)