globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-2903-2018
论文题名:
Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: The importance of model structure
作者: Pathiraja S.; Anghileri D.; Burlando P.; Sharma A.; Marshall L.; Moradkhani H.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2018
卷: 22, 期:5
起始页码: 2903
结束页码: 2919
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Economics ; Land use ; Population statistics ; Runoff ; Stream flow ; Time varying control systems ; Catchment hydrology ; Change conditions ; Hydrologic changes ; Meteorological factors ; Modeling methodology ; Streamflow prediction ; Time varying parameter ; Time-varying parameter models ; Catchments ; baseflow ; catchment ; data assimilation ; economic growth ; hydrological modeling ; hydrological response ; land cover ; land use change ; low flow ; parameter estimation ; population growth ; streamflow ; temporal variation ; Viet Nam
英文摘要: Rapid population and economic growth in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modeling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed data-assimilation-based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a medium-sized catchment (2880 km2) in northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of a time-varying parameter method. The method was used with two lumped daily conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD) that gave good-quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time-varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time-invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time-varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time-varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changing land cover conditions. It can also be used to determine whether land cover changes (and not just meteorological factors) contribute to the observed hydrologic changes in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment. © 2018 Author(s).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163306
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Pathiraja, S., Institut für Mathematik, Universität Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany, Water Research Centre, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Anghileri, D., Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Burlando, P., Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Sharma, A., Water Research Centre, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Marshall, L., Water Research Centre, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Moradkhani, H., Department of Civil Construction and Environmental Engineering, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States

Recommended Citation:
Pathiraja S.,Anghileri D.,Burlando P.,et al. Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: The importance of model structure[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2018-01-01,22(5)
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