globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-2759-2018
论文题名:
Effects of variability in probable maximum precipitation patterns on flood losses
作者: Zischg A.P.; Felder G.; Weingartner R.; Quinn N.; Coxon G.; Neal J.; Freer J.; Bates P.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2018
卷: 22, 期:5
起始页码: 2759
结束页码: 2773
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Catchments ; Flood control ; Hydraulic models ; Intelligent systems ; Monte Carlo methods ; Rain ; Risk assessment ; Rivers ; Uncertainty analysis ; Watersheds ; Infrastructure managements ; Model uncertainties ; Precipitation patterns ; Probable maximum discharges ; Probable maximum floods ; Probable maximum precipitation ; Rainfall distribution ; Spatial organization ; Flood damage ; catchment ; discharge ; flood ; hydrological modeling ; natural hazard ; precipitation (climatology) ; rainfall ; river basin ; river discharge ; vulnerability
英文摘要: The assessment of the impacts of extreme floods is important for dealing with residual risk, particularly for critical infrastructure management and for insurance purposes. Thus, modelling of the probable maximum flood (PMF) from probable maximum precipitation (PMP) by coupling hydrological and hydraulic models has gained interest in recent years. Herein, we examine whether variability in precipitation patterns exceeds or is below selected uncertainty factors in flood loss estimation and if the flood losses within a river basin are related to the probable maximum discharge at the basin outlet. We developed a model experiment with an ensemble of probable maximum precipitation scenarios created by Monte Carlo simulations. For each rainfall pattern, we computed the flood losses with a model chain and benchmarked the effects of variability in rainfall distribution with other model uncertainties. The results show that flood losses vary considerably within the river basin and depend on the timing and superimposition of the flood peaks from the basin's sub-catchments. In addition to the flood hazard component, the other components of flood risk, exposure, and vulnerability contribute remarkably to the overall variability. This leads to the conclusion that the estimation of the probable maximum expectable flood losses in a river basin should not be based exclusively on the PMF. Consequently, the basin-specific sensitivities to different precipitation patterns and the spatial organization of the settlements within the river basin need to be considered in the analyses of probable maximum flood losses. © Author(s) 2018.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163310
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作者单位: Zischg, A.P., University of Bern, Institute of Geography, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Mobiliar Lab for Natural Risks, Bern, 3012, Switzerland, School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, United Kingdom; Felder, G., University of Bern, Institute of Geography, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Mobiliar Lab for Natural Risks, Bern, 3012, Switzerland; Weingartner, R., University of Bern, Institute of Geography, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Mobiliar Lab for Natural Risks, Bern, 3012, Switzerland; Quinn, N., Fathom Ltd., Bristol, BS1 6QF, United Kingdom; Coxon, G., School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, United Kingdom; Neal, J., School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, United Kingdom; Freer, J., School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, United Kingdom; Bates, P., School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Zischg A.P.,Felder G.,Weingartner R.,et al. Effects of variability in probable maximum precipitation patterns on flood losses[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2018-01-01,22(5)
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