DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1904822116
论文题名: Marine ice sheet instability amplifies and skews uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise
作者: Robel A.A. ; Seroussi H. ; Roe G.H.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2019
卷: 116, 期: 30 起始页码: 14887
结束页码: 14892
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate variability
; Ice sheet
; Sea level
; Uncertainty
Scopus关键词: Antarctica
; article
; climate change
; glacier
; ice sheet
; physics
; sea ice
; sea level rise
; simulation
; stochastic model
; uncertainty
英文摘要: Sea-level rise may accelerate significantly if marine ice sheets become unstable. If such instability occurs, there would be considerable uncertainty in future sea-level rise projections due to imperfectly modeled ice sheet processes and unpredictable climate variability. In this study, we use mathematical and computational approaches to identify the ice sheet processes that drive uncertainty in sea-level projections. Using stochastic perturbation theory from statistical physics as a tool, we show mathematically that the marine ice sheet instability greatly amplifies and skews uncertainty in sea-level projections with worst-case scenarios of rapid sea-level rise being more likely than best-case scenarios of slower sea-level rise. We also perform large ensemble simulations with a state-of-the-art ice sheet model of Thwaites Glacier, a marine-terminating glacier in West Antarctica that is thought to be unstable. These ensemble simulations indicate that the uncertainty solely related to internal climate variability can be a large fraction of the total ice loss expected from Thwaites Glacier. We conclude that internal climate variability alone can be responsible for significant uncertainty in projections of sea-level rise and that large ensembles are a necessary tool for quantifying the upper bounds of this uncertainty. © 2019 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163547
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Robel, A.A., School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30318, United States; Seroussi, H., Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109, United States; Roe, G.H., Earth and Space Sciences Department, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98915, United States
Recommended Citation:
Robel A.A.,Seroussi H.,Roe G.H.. Marine ice sheet instability amplifies and skews uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2019-01-01,116(30)