globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1713628115
论文题名:
Uncertainty in forecasts of long-run economic growth
作者: Christensen P.; Gillingham K.; Nordhaus W.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2018
卷: 115, 期:21
起始页码: 5409
结束页码: 5414
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; Economic productivity ; Forecast uncertainty ; Greenhouse gas emissions ; Long-run growth
Scopus关键词: Article ; China ; climate change ; controlled study ; economic development ; forecasting ; gross national product ; high income country ; low income country ; middle income country ; priority journal ; probability ; social insurance ; statistical model ; uncertainty ; United States
英文摘要: Forecasts of long-run economic growth are critical inputs into policy decisions being made today on the economy and the environment. Despite its importance, there is a sparse literature on long-run forecasts of economic growth and the uncertainty in such forecasts. This study presents comprehensive probabilistic long-run projections of global and regional per-capita economic growth rates, comparing estimates from an expert survey and a low-frequency econometric approach. Our primary results suggest a median 2010–2100 global growth rate in per-capita gross domestic product of 2.1% per year, with a standard deviation (SD) of 1.1 percentage points, indicating substantially higher uncertainty than is implied in existing forecasts. The larger range of growth rates implies a greater likelihood of extreme climate change outcomes than is currently assumed and has important implications for social insurance programs in the United States. © 2018 National Academy of Sciences. All Rights Reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163712
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Christensen, P., Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, United States; Gillingham, K., School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, United States, Department of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, United States, School of Management, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, United States; Nordhaus, W., Department of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, United States

Recommended Citation:
Christensen P.,Gillingham K.,Nordhaus W.. Uncertainty in forecasts of long-run economic growth[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2018-01-01,115(21)
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