globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2001671117
论文题名:
Quantifying the dynamics of migration after Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico
作者: Acosta R.J.; Kishore N.; Irizarry R.A.; Buckee C.O.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2020
卷: 117, 期:51
起始页码: 32772
结束页码: 32778
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Hurricane Maria ; Passively collected data ; Population displacement ; Puerto Rico
英文摘要: Population displacement may occur after natural disasters, permanently altering the demographic composition of the affected regions. Measuring this displacement is vital for both optimal postdisaster resource allocation and calculation of measures of public health interest such as mortality estimates. Here, we analyzed data generated by mobile phones and social media to estimate the weekly island-wide population at risk and within-island geographic heterogeneity of migration in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria. We compared these two data sources with population estimates derived from air travel records and census data. We observed a loss of population across all data sources throughout the study period; however, the magnitude and dynamics differ by the data source. Census data predict a population loss of just over 129,000 from July 2017 to July 2018, a 4% decrease; air travel data predict a population loss of 168,295 for the same period, a 5% decrease; mobile phone-based estimates predict a loss of 235,375 from July 2017 to May 2018, an 8% decrease; and social media-based estimates predict a loss of 476,779 from August 2017 to August 2018, a 17%decrease. On average,municipalities with a smaller population size lost a bigger proportion of their population. Moreover, we infer that these municipalities experienced greater infrastructure damage as measured by the proportion of unknown locations stemming from these regions. Finally, our analysis measures a general shift of population from rural to urban centers within the island. Passively collected data provide a promising supplement to current at-risk population estimation procedures; however, each data source has its own biases and limitations. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163894
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Acosta, R.J., Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, United States; Kishore, N., Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, United States; Irizarry, R.A., Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, United States, Department of Data Science, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA 02215, United States; Buckee, C.O., Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, United States

Recommended Citation:
Acosta R.J.,Kishore N.,Irizarry R.A.,et al. Quantifying the dynamics of migration after Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2020-01-01,117(51)
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