globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1920986117
论文题名:
Heterogeneity in social and epidemiological factors determines the risk of measles outbreaks
作者: Bosetti P.; Poletti P.; Stella M.; Lepri B.; Merler S.; de Domenico M.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2020
卷: 117, 期:48
起始页码: 30118
结束页码: 30125
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Human mobility ; Infectious diseases ; Multiplex networks ; Population dynamics
英文摘要: Political and environmental factors—e.g., regional conflicts and global warming—increase large-scale migrations, posing extraordinary societal challenges to policymakers of destination countries. A common concern is that such a massive arrival of people—often from a country with a disrupted healthcare system—can increase the risk of vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks like measles. We analyze human flows of 3.5 million (M) Syrian refugees in Turkey inferred from massive mobile-phone data to verify this concern. We use multilayer modeling of interdependent social and epidemic dynamics to demonstrate that the risk of disease reemergence in Turkey, the main host country, can be dramatically reduced by 75 to 90% when the mixing of Turkish and Syrian populations is high. Our results suggest that maximizing the dispersal of refugees in the recipient population contributes to impede the spread of sustained measles epidemics, rather than favoring it. Targeted vaccination campaigns and policies enhancing social integration of refugees are the most effective strategies to reduce epidemic risks for all citizens. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163922
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Bosetti, P., Center for Information and Communications Technology, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Povo (Trento), 38123, Italy, Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, 75015, France; Poletti, P., Center for Information and Communications Technology, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Povo (Trento), 38123, Italy; Stella, M., Center for Information and Communications Technology, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Povo (Trento), 38123, Italy; Lepri, B., Center for Information and Communications Technology, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Povo (Trento), 38123, Italy; Merler, S., Center for Information and Communications Technology, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Povo (Trento), 38123, Italy; de Domenico, M., Center for Information and Communications Technology, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Povo (Trento), 38123, Italy

Recommended Citation:
Bosetti P.,Poletti P.,Stella M.,et al. Heterogeneity in social and epidemiological factors determines the risk of measles outbreaks[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2020-01-01,117(48)
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