globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2009144117
论文题名:
Increasing risk of another Cape Town "day Zero" drought in the 21st century
作者: Pascale S.; Kapnick S.B.; Delworth T.L.; Cooke W.F.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2020
卷: 117, 期:47
起始页码: 29495
结束页码: 29503
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate extremes ; Climate-change detection ; Drought ; Event attribution ; Large ensemble simulations
英文摘要: Three consecutive dry winters (2015-2017) in southwestern South Africa (SSA) resulted in the Cape Town "Day Zero" drought in early 2018. The contribution of anthropogenic global warming to this prolonged rainfall deficit has previously been evaluated through observations and climate models. However, model adequacy and insufficient horizontal resolution make it difficult to precisely quantify the changing likelihood of extreme droughts, given the small regional scale. Here, we use a high-resolution large ensemble to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to the probability of occurrence of multiyear SSA rainfall deficits in past and future decades. We find that anthropogenic climate change increased the likelihood of the 2015-2017 rainfall deficit by a factor of five to six. The probability of such an event will increase from 0.7 to 25% by the year 2100 under an intermediate-emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5 [SSP2-4.5]) and to 80% under a highemission scenario (SSP5-8.5). These results highlight the strong sensitivity of the drought risk in SSA to future anthropogenic emissions. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163924
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Pascale, S., Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, United States, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ 08540, United States, Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States; Kapnick, S.B., Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ 08540, United States; Delworth, T.L., Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ 08540, United States; Cooke, W.F., Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ 08540, United States

Recommended Citation:
Pascale S.,Kapnick S.B.,Delworth T.L.,et al. Increasing risk of another Cape Town "day Zero" drought in the 21st century[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2020-01-01,117(47)
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